Challenges of Measuring Business Expectations and Business Uncertainty in the Context of Transformation to the BANI World: A Statistical Approach
Chala T. G., Yukhymenko M. S.

Chala, Tеtyana G., and Yukhymenko, Mariia S. (2025) “Challenges of Measuring Business Expectations and Business Uncertainty in the Context of Transformation to the BANI World: A Statistical Approach.” The Problems of Economy 1:357–366.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2025-1-357-366

Section: Economic statistics. Accounting and Auditing

UDC 334.722:005.52]-042.3:330.131.7 (477)

Abstract:
The transformation of business expectations in the contemporary BANI world (brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible), which has replaced the VUCA environment, is examined. The significance of business expectations as a key tool in economic analysis is explored, particularly their impact on decision-making, investment activity, employment, and pricing. The focus is on the adaptation of businesses in Ukraine to the conditions of the BANI world and methodological approaches to measuring uncertainty and business sentiment. The article identifies international and national organizations engaged in developing methodologies for collecting data on business expectations. Particular attention is given to the analysis of methodologies such as the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), which is used to determine economic activity, and the harmonized EU BCS (Business and Consumer Surveys) program. The research is based on a review of international and national indicators, including indices of trust, economic sentiments, employment, and uncertainty, which allow for the assessment of cyclical changes in the economy. An example is provided of the business confidence index, which currently reflects a general Ukrainian trend toward a decrease in economic activity in the context of the crisis. The authors have also analyzed the Business barometer, initiated by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Ukraine, as an important tool for forecasting market conditions. This index takes into account the situation in key sectors of the economy – manufacturing, construction, trade, and services – and allows for the assessment of the current state and expectations of businesses. The methodology for calculating the Business Barometer is based on PMI, ensuring consistency with international standards. The overall conclusion of the article is that measuring business expectations in a BANI world requires continual refinement of methodologies and approaches. In conditions of high uncertainty, adaptability and the ability to respond quickly to changes in economic conditions acquire special significance. The Ukrainian business sector requires further support and the development of forecasting tools to effectively integrate into global economic processes and overcome the challenges of the modern world.

Keywords: business barometer, business expectations, index, indicator, business uncertainty, BANI world, SPOD world, VUCA world.

Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 3. Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 32.

Chala Tеtyana G. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: t.g.chala@karazin.ua
Yukhymenko Mariia S. – Master, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: yukhimenko20@gmail.com

List of references in article

“Barometr biznesu. Shchomisiachne opytuvannia biznesu Ukrainy. Vypusky 1-14. 2023-2024 r.“ [Business Barometer. Monthly Survey of Ukrainian Businesses. Issues 1-14. 2023-2024]. https://ucci.org.ua/barometr-biznesu
“Ochikuvannia promyslovykh pidpryiemstv u lystopadi 2024 roku shchodo perspektyv rozvytku yikh dilovoi aktyvnosti“ [Expectations of Industrial Enterprises in November 2024 Regarding the Prospects for the Development of Their Business Activity]. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. https://stat.gov.ua/uk/publications/ochikuvannya-promyslovykh-pidpryyemstv-u-lystopadi-2024-roku-shchodo-perspektyv
“Doslidzhennia stanu ta potreb biznesu v umovakh viiny: rezultaty opytuvannia v hrudni 2023 - sichni 2024 roku“ [Research on the State and Needs of Business in Wartime Conditions: Survey Results in December 2023 - January 2024]. Diia.Biznes. 2024. https://business.diia.gov.ua/analytics/research/stan-ta-potreby-biznesu-v-umovakh-viiny-rezultaty-doslidzhennia-v-sichni-2024
“Doslidzhennia stanu ta potreb ukrainskoho biznesu pid chas viiny“ [Research on the State and Needs of Ukrainian Business During the War]. Diia.Biznes, Advanter Group za pidtrymky Yevropeiskoho Soiuzu. 2022. https://business.diia.gov.ua/analytics/research/doslidzhennia-stanu-ta-potreb-ukrainskoho-biznesu-pid-chas-viiny
[Legal Act of Ukraine] (2021). https://ukrstat.gov.ua/norm_doc/2021/301/301.pdf
[Legal Act of Ukraine] (2021). https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/norm_doc/2021/328/328.pdf
[Legal Act of Ukraine] (2022). https://ukrstat.gov.ua/norm_doc/2022/262/262_ 2022.pdf
“Dilovi ochikuvannia pidpryiemstv Ukrainy v II kvartali 2024 roku. 2024“ [Business Expectations of Ukrainian Enterprises in the Second Quarter of 2024. 2024]. Departament statystyky ta zvitnosti. https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/BOS_2024-Q2.pdf?v=10
“Nove shchomisiachne opytuvannia pidpryiemstv. 2024. Vyp. 30. Ukrainskyi biznes pid chas viiny“ [New Monthly Survey of Enterprises. 2024. Issue 30. Ukrainian Business During the War]. http://www.ier.com.ua/files/Projects/2024/TFD/2024_NRES_October_FINAL_UKR.pdf
Angeletos, G.-M., and La'O, J. Sentiments. 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10008
Avalos, E. et al. “Business Expectations & Uncertainty in Developing & Emerging Economies“. The World Bank & the Hertie School. 2021. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/shared/pdf/20211111_joint_ECB_FEDNY/05Barrero.pdf
Barsky, R. B., and Sims, E. R. “Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence“. American Economic Review. 2012. https://uh.edu/~bsorense/BarskySims.pdf
“Business expectations survey report“. 2024. https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Lists/Business%20Expectations%20Report/Attachments/22/BES_3qtr2024.pdf
Cascio, J. “Facing the Age of Chaos“. Medium. 2020. https://medium.com/@cascio/facing-the-age-of-chaos-b00687b1f51d
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., and Kumar, S. “How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence“. American Economic Review. 2018. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20151299
“Download business and consumer survey data“. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/subsector-data_en
Enders, Z., Hunnekes, F., and Muller, G. “Firm expectations and economic activity“. CESifo Working Paper no. 7623, Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research. 2019. https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2019/working-paper/firm-expectations-and-economic-activity
“ESTAT Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the Europe“. NACE. https://showvoc.op.europa.eu/#/datasets/ESTAT_Statistical_Classification_of_Economic_Activities_in_the_European_Community_Rev._2.1._%28NACE_2.1%29/data
Fridgeirsson, Th. V., and Ingason, H. Th. “Why the Basic Axioms of RiskAssessment Can Be Problematic to Identify Risk? - The Development of the VUCA Meter“. Austin J Bus Adm Manage. 2023. https://austinpublishinggroup.com/business-administration-and-management/fulltext/ajbam-v7-id1059.pdf
“Global PMI Output Index. 2024“. https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/5865764_5865755_0.1.pdf
Godoy, M., and Filho, D. R. “Facing the BANI World“. International Journal of Nutrology. 2021. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354813527_Facing_the_BANI_World
“Index Intelligence: yak vykorystovuvaty rezultaty opytuvan dlia pryiniattia biznes-rishen“ [Index Intelligence: How to Use Survey Results to Make Business Decisions]. https://ucci.org.ua/uploads/files/65804cb7758e6404340810.pdf
“The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. User Guide“. European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. 2016. https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/bcs_user_guide_en.pdf
“The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. User Guide (updated January 2024)“. European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. 2024. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/4f162b92-e654-4cef-beed-38960dae1b09_en?filename=bcs_user_ guide.pdf
“The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. European Economy“. European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. 2006. https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/studies/ee_bcs_2006_05_en.pdf
Kukuvec, A., and Oberhofer, H. “The Propagation of Business Expectations within the European Union“. CESifo Working Paper no. 8198. Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research, 2020. https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2020/working-paper/propagation-business-expectations-within-european-union
“November 2024 Manufacturing ISM. Report On Business“. ISM. 2024. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/november/
“November 2024 Services ISM. Report on Business“. ISM. 2024. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/november/
Nowzohour, L., and Stracca, L. “More than a feeling: confidence, uncertainty and macroeconomic fluctuations“. European Central Bank. Working Paper Series, 2017. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2100.en.pdf
Sridharan, M. “BANI“. 2021. https://thinkinsights.net/leadership/bani
Stottinger, B. “BANI vs. VUCA: How Leadership Works in the World of Tomorrow“. Executive Academy. 2022. https://executiveacademy.at/en/news/detail/bani-vs-vuca-how-leadership-works-in-the-world-of-tomorrow
Togan, A. “VUCA vs BANI - Which Will Come Out on Top?“ 2023. https://theagilecompany.org/vuca-bani/