The Stages of the Economic Cycle and Their Impact on the Market Capitalization of Technology Companies: The Conceptual Approaches
Usherenko S. V., Kosko O. V.

Usherenko, Svitlana V., and Kosko, Oleksandr V. (2025) “The Stages of the Economic Cycle and Their Impact on the Market Capitalization of Technology Companies: The Conceptual Approaches.” The Problems of Economy 3:226–234.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2025-3-226-234

Section: Economics and Enterprise Management

UDC 330.101.541:338.124.4:004.738.5

Abstract:
The article provides a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the impact of economic cycle phases on the market capitalization of technology companies. Under context of a rapidly evolving global economy, the study explores the effects of pandemics, geopolitical disruptions, digital transformation, and structural shifts in international markets on capital structure of technological companies. The research focuses on an interdisciplinary interpretation of the interrelation between macroeconomic fluctuations, firm-level characteristics and investor behavioral responses. The article systematizes key cyclical theories, including classical, Keynesian, monetarist, behavioral, institutional and financial approaches, that explain how different economic phases (expansion, peak, downturn, and recession) influence the business valuation. Special attention is devoted to the distinctive features of technological companies, particularly their reliance on venture capital, innovation potential, patent activity, regulatory risks, and the market expectations that are evolved. A conceptual model is proposed in which market capitalization is framed as a nonlinear outcome of the interaction among three dimensions: the macroeconomic environment, a firm’s internal adaptive capacity, and investor behavioral patterns. The study emphasizes the need to move beyond one-dimensional valuation frameworks toward integrated models adjusted to the specifics of the technology sector. Finally, the article outlines directions for further empirical research aimed at modeling the dynamic relationship between economic cycles and the valuation trajectories of innovation-driven companies. Future studies will be focused on validating the proposed conceptual framework through quantitative analysis and scenario-based forecasting.

Keywords: economic cycle, market capitalization, technology companies, fintech, behavioral finance, corporate finance.

Tabl.: 3. Bibl.: 20.

Usherenko Svitlana V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Corporate Finance and Controlling, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: usherenko_svitlana@kneu.edu.ua
Kosko Oleksandr V. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Corporate Finance and Controlling, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: koskoaleksandr23@gmail.com

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