The Bottom-up Assessment of Market Potential and Forecasting of the Motorcycle Tire Market Development in Ukraine
Korepanov O. S., Lazebnyk I. O., Chala T. G., Pshenichny A. Y.

Korepanov, Oleksiy S. et al. (2026) “The Bottom-up Assessment of Market Potential and Forecasting of the Motorcycle Tire Market Development in Ukraine.” The Problems of Economy 1:290–299.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2026-1-290-299

Section: Mathematical methods and models in economy

UDC 311.21:330.43:656.13

Abstract:
The article is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis and modeling of the development trends of the motorcycle tire market in Ukraine, taking into account modern challenges caused by events of the ongoing military aggression, the industry’s dependence on imports, and the high sensitivity of demand to macroeconomic factors. The relevance of the study is due to the need for a quantitative assessment of market potential and the formation of reliable forecasts, which are necessary for strategic management, planning of import operations, optimization of logistics solutions, and determination of the industry’s investment attractiveness. The aim of the article is to assess the annual market potential of the motorcycle tire segment and to forecast future trends based on official statistical data and component analysis of time series. The study provides a detailed examination of the market structure, including the aftermarket segment and OEM supply, and develops an economic-statistical market model using a bottom-up approach, which allows for consideration of the average mileage of equipment, tire lifespan, fleet structure, and pricing parameters. Special attention is given to the classification of import flows under HS code 401140, which serve as a key indicator of market activity. The article constructs three scenarios for assessing market potential (conservative, baseline, and optimistic). Under the baseline scenario, the annual market volume is estimated at USD 24–27 million, with the aftermarket segment accounting for the dominant share (over 85–90%). The methodological basis of the study for market forecasting is Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), which allows for the separation of trend, seasonal, and random components of the time series of tire imports for 2020–2025. The choice of model parameters is substantiated, the series is decomposed, the cleaned signal is restored, and a forecast for 2025–2026 is developed. The application of SSA made it possible to obtain highly accurate results due to the non-parametric nature of the method and its ability to work with short non-stationary series. The conducted analysis indicates a pronounced seasonality of imports, a gradual recovery of the market after the 2022 downturn, and an average annual demand growth of 5–7%. The obtained results have important practical significance for importers, distributors, manufacturers, and analytical centers. They can be used for procurement planning, risk management, assessing the impact of price fluctuations, and developing strategic forecasts for the motorcycle tire market.

Keywords: market potential, singular spectrum analysis, forecasting, import, time series, motorcycles, aftermarket, statistical modeling.

Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 2. Formulae: 4. Bibl.: 13.

Korepanov Oleksiy S. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: o.s.korepanov@karazin.ua
Lazebnyk Iuliia O. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Audit, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: y.a.lazebnyk@karazin.ua
Chala Tеtyana G. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: t.g.chala@karazin.ua
Pshenichny Andriy Ye. – Masters Student, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Audit, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: andrej.psh0511@gmail.com

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