Uncertainty Factor in Strategizing International Companies
Kalyuzhna N. H., Kucherenko K. D.

Kalyuzhna, Nataliya H., and Kucherenko, Kristina D. (2026) “Uncertainty Factor in Strategizing International Companies.” The Problems of Economy 2:15–25.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2026-2-15-25

Section: World economy and international relations

UDC 339.9:005.21

Abstract:
The study of the role of uncertainty as a factor shaping the strategies of multinational companies makes it possible to identify key mechanisms of business adaptation to dynamic and often unpredictable global changes. The synthesis of scientific research results indicates that uncertainty should be regarded as a determinant of the global business environment, while its progressive nature and rapid dynamics require an analysis of the impact of uncertainty on the strategizing process of multinational companies, which constitutes the aim of this article. The research hypothesis assumes that the increasing level of global uncertainty and structural shifts in its dynamics lead to the transformation of strategic approaches of multinational companies towards greater adaptability, diversification, and resilience. The study employs a range of general scientific and specialized research methods (time series analysis, abstraction and generalization, retrospective analysis, case study, and graphical modelling), as well as statistical data from expert analytical institutions, international organizations, and online resources. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the World Uncertainty Index, structural shifts in its growth in 2025–2026 were identified, driven by U.S. tariff policy and the escalation of geopolitical instability. A comparison of U.S. foreign direct investment dynamics with the country uncertainty index confirmed that periods of global crises are traditionally accompanied by declines or high volatility in investment flows. The analysis of the dynamics of the share of goods and services exports in U.S. GDP and the Dow Jones Composite Index demonstrated the sensitivity of the corporate sector to external shocks, illustrated by the impact of the 2001 events (the 9/11 terrorist attacks). Negative effects of other global uncertainty shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. tariff escalation in April 2025 were also confirmed. The case of Toyota is examined as an example of an effective corporate response to the adverse consequences of changes in U.S. tariff policy. The findings indicate that experience from previous crisis periods demonstrates the strengthening role of adaptive mechanisms in multinational corporate strategizing, thereby confirming the research hypothesis regarding the escalation of global uncertainty and its direct impact on the transformation of strategic approaches. The author’s contribution lies in substantiating the need to adapt the strategizing processes of multinational companies to conditions of global uncertainty, which demonstrates a persistent upward trend, and in identifying the main directions and priorities of adaptive strategic measures. The practical significance of the study is reflected in deepening the understanding of the impact of global uncertainty on the strategizing processes of multinational companies.

Keywords: uncertainty; geopolitical tension; strategizing; multinational companies; World Uncertainty Index; foreign direct investment; tariff escalation.

Fig.: 8. Bibl.: 21.

Kalyuzhna Nataliya H. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of World Economy, State University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: n.kalyuzhna@knute.edu.ua
Kucherenko Kristina D. – Student, State University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: k.kucherenko_fmtp_17_23_b_d@knute.edu.ua

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