Mathematical methods and models in economy
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22011
Svetunkov S. G., Svetunkov I. S., Kyzym M. O., Klebanova T. S. Forecasting of Social and Economic Development of the Regions with the Help of the Models of Complex Valued Economics (p. 83  90)
The article considers the possibility of the use of complex valued index, which includes both material and imaginary parts, as an indicator of the level of region’s development. The material part of this index characterizes the income level of the region’s population and thereby is the generalizing index of its economic development level. We can judge about the correlation of social and economic components of regional development on the basis of complex valued index polar angle change analysis. The forecasting of the index gives the possibility of defining the tendencies and character of the regional development dynamics. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №32011
Goridko N. P., Nizhegorodtsev R. M. Depreciation of Fixed Assets as a Factor of Inflation in the Contemporary Ukrainian Economy: the Econometric Investigation (p. 98  100)
The paper is devoted to elaborating econometric models to illustrate the impact of depreciation of fixed assets onto inflation dynamics in the contemporary Ukrainian economy, including the lag influences. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42011
Omarov S. A. Specific features of the use of scenario approach in formation of the company’s development strategy (p. 139  142)
The article considers specific features of scenario approach in formation of the company’s development strategy. The essence of this approach and its advantages when solving problems of strategic planning are analyzed. A comparative characteristic of basic prerequisites of the scenario approach and traditional strategic planning is given. Characteristics of the scenario approach and mechanism of execution of scenario planning are considered. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Yaldin I. V. Cognitive modelling in forecasting scenarios of the strategy of stable development of an integrated structure of business (p. 142  150)
The article analyses specific features of application of cognitive modelling when forecasting stable development of integrated structures of business (ISB). Advantages of cognitive modelling in the process of management of ISB are identified. A system of cognitive models of assessment and forecasting of stable development of an integrated formation is developed. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12012
Serikov A. V., Granko Y. B. Economics and mathematical research forming processes’ of financially productive potential of building enterprise’s (p. 101  105)
In the article on the basis of the economical and mathematical modelling, which is built on systematical approach, forming processes of building enterprise’s potential are examined and appropriate calculated formulas are obtained. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22012
Guryanova L. S., Klebanova T. S., Sergienko O. A., Goncharenko G. S. The Model of the Analysis of Asymmetry of Social and Economic Development of Regions (p. 27  33)
The model of the analysis of asymmetry of social and economic development of regions is offered in the article. Based on methods of the multivariate statistical analysis, the model allows to reveal sources of the disbalances of development of regions and to raise quality of administrative decisions that concerning choice of tools of state regulation of development of regions. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Zaruba V. Y., Potrashkova L. V. Modelling for the Financial Potential of the Enterprise (p. 33  37)
The authors propose conceptual bases for creating the complex of mathematical models of strategic, tactical and operative levels of financial potential of an enterprise. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Wackowski K. S., Gordiienko L. Y. Bank of Methods and Models to Support Transformational and Managerial Decisions in the Socioeconomic Systems (p. 38  42)
This article discusses the methodological approach to development of transformational decision support system in the socioeconomic systems based on the conception of the bank of methods and models (BnMM). An example of a management model of organizational transformation that is generated through the use of BnMM in the logical view. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Valieva O. V. Multivariate Statistical Analysis in the Study of Russian Regional Innovative Systems (p. 42  47)
The article shows results of research on revealing influence institutional conditions on parameters of formation and development of regional innovative systems of the Russian Federation. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Kolomytseva A. O. Conditions and Benefits of Using AdaptiveRational Predictions in Problems of InnovativeOriented Systems (p. 48  50)
Article is devoted working out and a substantiation of the approach of sharing of adaptive principles of rational forecasting and methods of systemdynamic imitating modelling, as most adequate tool of studying of priorities of development of the is innovativefocused systems. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Poliakova O. Y., Goltyaeva L. A. The Expediency of the Costs of Antirisk Measures (p. 51  54)
The research is devoted to creation and testing algorithm of feasibility costs for financial risk management decisions. The admissible cost for measures to resistance the financial risk is calculated. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Medvedeva M. I. Flexible Manufacturing System with Changeover, Unreliable Device, Vacation and Prophylaxis (p. 54  58)
The question of determination of stationary probabilities of the states of the queuing system with an unreliable device, vacation and prophylaxis describing functioning of both basic and auxiliary material stream of the logistic system is considered in the article. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Iastrebova G. S., Nikiforova O. V., Chagovets L. O. Modelling of the Process of Regional systems’ Development Imbalances Aligning with the Use of Tax Levers (p. 58  62)
The article is devoted to the question of socialeconomic development regions disproportions. The complex of economicmathematical models of disproportions development leveling of regions, based on tax levers, was provided. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Guzhva V. M., Palamarchuk O. V. Using of Genetic Algorithms to Create AgentBased Systems in Logistics (p. 62  66)
The article discusses the use of genetic algorithms to create agentbased systems for supply chain management. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Yevstrat D. I., Kushneruk Y. I. Application of the Analysis of Hierarchy Process to Evaluate the Marketing Activities of Commercial Enterprises (p. 66  71)
The problem of evaluation of marketing activity of trading companies with the analytic hierarchy process. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Prokopovych S. V., Tutova S. A. Evaluation Model of Private Pension Fund Activity on the Basis of the Theory of fractals (p. 71  75)
The article is devoted to the problem of evaluation of the dynamics of indicators of nonstate pension funds activities of Ukraine on the basis of the fractals theory application. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Khayluk S. A. Using a Bayesian Approach to Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Banking System (p. 75  77)
The article introduces the concept of «likelihood of effective functioning of the banking system» as equivalent to the notion of «efficiency of the banking system». Demonstrate the use of the Bayesian approach to model evaluation of the effectiveness of the banking system and provides the basic elements of this model. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №32012
Guryanova L. S. The application of the panel data production functions in the analysis of regional development (p. 187  191)
The production functions of panel data with and without NTP factor account are considered in the article. They allow to create «a regional profile» asset turnover branches that is a basis for development of the differentiated regions development stimulation policy. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Pedersen I. A. Improvement of approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of innovation (p. 192  195)
The paper proposes an improved system of methodological approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of innovation. The approaches proposed by the author involve the use of a sufficient number of indicators that comprehensively demonstrate the effectiveness of the implementation of an innovation and its economic impact on the company. They also involve the application of the discount rate in calculations, the account of the impact of inflation and the risk to the effectiveness of innovation, the calculation of indicators of financial condition of the company. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Polovyan A. V. Modeling the behavior strategies of enterprises in economic and ecological populations (p. 196  200)
In the article proposes an approach that describes impact enterprise of the operation on the environment and feedback from the state economicecological systems, which are at different levels of technological development. The selfish and altruistic behavior strategies provided to display a range of selfinterest of businesses. The symbolic model of cognitive functioning economic agents and designed systemdynamic model of individual enterprises as part of the economic population. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42012
Blahun I. S., Dmytryshyn L. I. Modeling the Relationship of «Income Inequality  Economic Growth» by Using the Theory of Cascading Benefits (p. 216  221)
The relationship between income inequality and economic growth are considered in the context of the relative consumption of economic agents. A endogenous growth simple model is presented, in which agents have different initial levels of income and operating in accordance with cascading benefits, that compare their own consumption to the level of consumption of the next largest initial income of economic agents. Within this model, the impact of income inequality on economic growth depends on the form of the initial income distribution and how is social comparison. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Bublik N. D., Lukina I. I., Shashkova T. N., Chuvilin D. V., Sharipova L. K. Improving of the Validity Tariffs Level Control for Housing and Communal Services Based on Economic and Mathematical Modeling (p. 222  227)
The article analyzes the current state of the tariffs for housing and communal services regulation. Topicality of the control validity level in tariffs were reasoned in view of coordinating the interests of all stakeholders of housing and communal services: the state, producers and customers. The concept of modeling, evaluation and removal uncertainty based on forming a quasihomogeneous statistical aggregates regulated organizations, modeling, and assessment of variance in declared tariff levels from their estimated («analogtoaverage») level was proposed to using in forming of system of tariff control. This approach will identify with lowest cost violators of the tariff legislation  an organization with a high potential of regulation. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Poliakova O. Y., Omarov S. A. Modeling of SocioEconomic Development of the Country on the Basis of Pulse Processes (p. 228  231)
The article deals with the nature and characteristics of simulation for analyzing and forecasting the socioeconomic development of the country. It is shown that the basis of such simulations are diagrams causality  cognitive map and study the problem on the basis of a cognitive map is through the distribution of the pulsed process. It was reviewed and analyzed a number of modern simulation (cognitive) models of regional development proposed in the scientific literature that demonstrate the use of this tool as the modeling of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and indicators of local economic and social development of the region. The basic advantages and disadvantages of the use of cognitive models in the modeling of macroeconomic and regional dynamics were defined. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Guryanova L. S., Nepomnyashchiy V. V. Conceptual Approaches to Modeling of the Financial Security (p. 232  236)
At this article are examined conceptual attitudes to the forming modeling basis of evaluation, analysis and forecasting state financial security (SFS). Realization of the conceptual attitudes in the system SFS gives the opportunity to compose leading progress indicators, which allows analyzing preconditions of the crisis phenomenon at the financial area of economics, its depth and scale, and allows making choice of preventing strategic arrangements, aimed at neutralization of threats of financial security. At the article is grounded the composition of the modeling basis of system SFS, which includes: block of appraisal of current system status; block of anticipation of system status; block of identification of its future status based on the scenario approach findings; decision making block grounded at the predicted path of the system as a result of managerial influence. Suggested conceptual approach is the base for developing SFS system, which takes into account as economic situation inside the state so as the international trends (intergovernmental, global), what allows improving the decisionmaking quality by means of application of the scenario anticipations of situation progress. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Pronoza P. V., Grishchenko A. V. Analysis of Tools for Predicting the Possibility of the Onset of the Economic Crisis (p. 237  245)
The article discusses the genesis of scientific thought on the analysis of patterns of occurrence of the crisis in the world's economies. It was investigated the views of scientists on the cyclical development of the economy, and the causes and background of the crisis. It was reviews current methodological approaches to the prediction of economic crises. It was analyzed such tools predict the possibility of occurrence of the crisis as a simulation of economic processes to diagnose their condition and trends. It was proved that the methodological support diagnostic crisis conditions despite the diversity of the approaches and models are constantly evolving and demonstrates the need to find new and effective tools for analysis of market trends. Article is written in Ukrainan Download article in pdf format 
Oganezova G. V. Simulation of Demand for Health Services Depending on the Age of the Population (p. 246  250)
For a realistic estimation of the possibility of increasing health care costs must be calculated the resource requirements for the provision of medical care in the volumes of relevant standards and projected number of diseases. In this paper with methods of comparative and regression analysis were built age profiles of health expenditure of Ukraine on "British", "Russian" and "European" model. A model of demand for health services depending on the age is developed, which is recommended to be used in the budgetary allocation of financial resources for health care. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
Penkova I. V., Bodnar A. V. Mechanism of Communications Management Based on Fuzzy Modeling (p. 250  255)
The construction of a mechanism of organizational communications management based on the analysis of existing mechanisms and identifying their weaknesses is suggested in the article. The necessity of establishing a mechanism for communications management that accounts for the uncertainty parameters for their evaluation and make operational management decisions is proved. The basis of the fuzzy model is supposed to ten key factors assessment of the communications industry. The proposed mechanism will allow to obtain at the output of the system the management solution. Article is written in Russian Download article in pdf format 
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12013
Vitlinskyy V. V., Kolyada Y. V., Baranov K. O. Modelling and analysis of trajectories of economic development on the basis of discrete Solow model (p. 353  362)
The article uses isomorphism of the discrete variant of the Solow model and classic logistic mapping to obtain the following: analogous to the theory of orthodox logistic mapping (with one rparameter) for its modification, which is characterised by two numeric parameters r and a, it builds a map of dynamic modes on the plane of mentioned parameters; areas are shown where one can observe various behaviour of the resulting Xn+1 value, including the area of determined chaos; bifurcation diagrams of modified logistic mapping are provided: their comparison with classical data testifies to appearance of a more complex structure of immixture (socalled windowstrips are not available). The article studies influence of delay upon trajectories of economic development, based on the use of logistic mapping in the form of Henon algorithm. It empirically finds the numeric value b=0,15 of the Henon constant for modelling nonlinear dynamics of an economic system (in literature b=0,3). Article is written in Ukrainan
Kharlamova A. A. Investment security of Ukraine: dynamics and forecast (p. 363  367)
The article considers dichotomy of the notion of security in its terminological application to investment processes. The author uses comparison and critical analysis of existing generally accepted approaches for offering own definition of the “investment security” notion and own approach to its assessment, based on structural consideration of investment security through components of the investment climate (investment potential, investment activity, investment risks) and on application of the cluster analysis and rating. The article considers dynamics of investment security of Ukraine. It graphically traces influence of the state policy in the country upon dynamics of investment security and gives a forecast of development of the phenomenon for the next year. Article is written in English
Goncharenko M. F. Methods and models of assessing and forecasting needs of economy in graduates from higher educational establishments (p. 368  375)
The article states that successful realisation of state policy in the field of higher education requires identification of requirements of the labour market in specialists of relevant categories and directions of training. This needs preliminary forecasting both market demands and supplies, which are formed with graduates of higher educational establishments. Forecasts of labour market demand and education services market supply would allow better balance of the country economy and increase of quality and justification of regulatory measures. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22013
Kostenko E., Kuznichenko V. M., Lapshyn V. I. Influence of external periodic and nonlinear factors upon stability of economic systems (p. 212  219)
The article conducts a study of influence of periodic effect upon economic systems. It shows a danger of the resonance case when frequency of external periodic effect on the system tends to its own frequency of vibrations near the state of equilibrium. In this case, the amplitude of vibrations of the system becomes proportional to time and grows with it. Account of impacts, proportional to the rate of shift from the state of equilibrium, results in limitation of growth of the amplitude of vibrations, taking away secular dependence. Account of actions, proportional to nonlinear shifts from the point of equilibrium, points out a possibility of taking the system out of the resonance. Quadratic nonlinearity has no influence upon changes of the amplitude and vibration phase and cubic nonlinearity changes the vibration phase through the amplitude, which takes the system out of the resonance. Depending on the system parameters, the case of a sudden change of the amplitude during the change of difference between the own frequency of the system and frequency of periodic effect is possible, moreover, the system passes to a stable state. The article offers methods of treating monitoring data for qualitative analysis of dynamics of economic systems. Article is written in Russian
Kovalchuk K. F., Polushenko V. A. Relational model of the relation of trust in an insurance company (p. 220  225)
The article considers significance of the notion of trust in the insurance business and during functioning of activity of the insurance company personnel. It builds a model of assessment of the relation of trust in an insurance company, the main aspect in which is devoted to internal group mutual relations of trust and offers a relational type of this model. It provides results of the model study and determines integral criteria of trust in the insurance company collective. Article is written in Ukrainan
Lyashenko Y. I. Interbranch models of multistructural economy (p. 226  229)
The article offers static and dynamic interbranch models of a multistructural closed economy, which use an interbranch approach within the framework of each technological structure. Methods of aggregation and optimisation are used for static models. The mainline approach is realised for dynamic models. Article is written in Ukrainan
Pursky O. I., Moroz I. O. Identification of integral indicators of socioeconomic development of regions on the basis of expert assessment and principalcomponent method (p. 230  236)
The article studies procedures of identification of integral indicators of socioeconomic development of regions, which are based on automation of methods of expert assessment and principalcomponent method. It offers the mechanism of intellectual analysis of data of socioeconomic monitoring on the basis of expertstatistical assessment. It provides a mechanism of automation of expert assessment of weight factor ratios, which takes into account competence of experts. It conducts a programme realisation of the procedure of identification of integral indicators of socioeconomic development on the basis of expert assessment and principalcomponent method. This programme technology allows consideration of differentiation in socioeconomic development of regions in the mechanisms of identification of integral indicators. The article shows an example of application of the proposed mechanism of intellectual processing of data for calculation of integral indicators of socioeconomic development of the Vinnytsia oblast districts. Article is written in Ukrainan
Vinogradskaya Y. A., Shukatko A. O. Mechanism of diagnosis of the crisis state of an insurance company (p. 237  241)
The article justifies a necessity of development of an efficient approach to monitoring and assessment of financial state of an insurance company, considers main aspects of the procedure of diagnosis of its crisis state and offers a matrix of crisis states, which allows identification of the character of anticrisis measures for an insurance company. Article is written in Russian
Guryanova L. S., Kholodnyi H. O., Lukyanchikova A. S. Methods and models of analysis of spatial clusterisation of rates of socioeconomic development of regions (p. 242  250)
The article offers a scheme of analysis of spatial clusterisation of the rates of socioeconomic development of regions, which includes grouping of regions by the level of development, assessment of regional inclination to migration from cluster to cluster, and forecasting the level of socioeconomic development of regions. Methods of cluster analysis, spatial econometrics, discriminant and logitanalysis are used as the instruments of the study. The obtained results could be used when assessing the equilibrium of development of regions and formation of mechanisms of eveningout impacts of external shocks on economic dynamics. Article is written in Russian
Dilenko V. O., Tarakanov N. L. Mathematical models of optimal allocation of logistical capacities in the regional system of commodity flows (p. 251  256)
The article considers tasks of allocation and innovation development of logistical capacities. The essence of the first task lies in optimal (from the position of the criterion of minimum expenditures) formation of the regional system of logistical capacities of various types and purposes in possible places of their location. These capacities should treat the set commodity flows, which possess a complex structure and are produced by different centres. The original conditions of the second task are a certain, already existing, system of logistical capacities. It is necessary to conduct its modification by a rational method using methods with various degree of innovation: simple accumulation of capacities of original productivity, modernisation of existing technological units and introduction of new more efficient capacities. In order to solve the specified tasks, the article built optimisation models, which correspond with setting mathematical tasks of partially integervalued linear programming. Article is written in Russian
Dubnitskiy V. Y., Petrenko O. Check of performance of properties of production functions as mathematical objects (p. 257  261)
The article determines properties of production functions as mathematical objects. It identifies limitations of their parameters that provide preservation of meaningful value by them. In order to apply production functions in the economic factor analysis, the article obtained curvilinear integrals from them by the set contours. Article is written in Russian
Potrashkova L. V. Modelling activity of a company with consideration of its socioeconomic relations as a tool of assessment of company potential (p. 262  267)
The article offers an approach to the result assessment of the company potential on the basis of the system of imitation models of activity of a company and expert reflexive models of decisions of company stakeholders, which depend on socioeconomic relations in a company. Article is written in Russian
Sergienko O. A., Tatar M. S. Models of forecasting currency rates in the system of managing enterprise’s competitiveness (p. 268  278)
The article builds up a model of study of behaviour of currency rates with the use of methods of fractality and interconnection between currency rates and factors of their formation, which allows obtaining adequate forecasting in the system of managing competitiveness of metallurgy enterprises and formation of efficient currency policy. Article is written in Ukrainan
Solovyov V. N., Stratiychuk I. О. Use of precursor indicators of crisis phenomena of the financial market on the basis of the scaledependent Lyapunov exponent (p. 279  283)
The article considers methods of building up precursor indicators of crisis phenomena on the basis of the scaledependent Lyapunov exponents, provides results of experimental work on prevention of crisis phenomena in the stock, currency and spot markets. It develops main approaches on prevention of crisis phenomena in the financial market. Article is written in Ukrainan
Tadeyev Y. P. Ecological and economic model of optimal management with the linear function of usefulness (p. 284  287)
The article studies an ecological and economic model of optimal management with the linear function of usefulness. The model takes into account investments into production funds, into intellectual capital as a part of human capital, and into protection of environment. Among a multitude of possible stationary equilibrium states the article studies in detail four states that satisfy necessary conditions of optimality: equilibrium of the golden age, equilibrium of the intellectual age, equilibrium of the ecological age and equilibrium of the dark age. Article is written in Ukrainan
Tyschenko V. F., Skladannyy D. M. Cognitive modelling of processes of publicprivate partnership in Ukrainian regions (p. 288  297)
The article presents the authors’ view on application of the cognitive modelling when managing processes of activation of the publicprivate partnership (PPP) in Ukrainian regions. The authors formed a system of concepts of the public and private sectors of economy, which make positive or negative impact upon activation of PPP(target component “Investments”). In order to study the causeeffect relations between the concepts of the public and private sectors, the article offers to use cognitive maps, which showed themselves in the analysis and study of semistructured systems. It develops a cognitive model of influence of a multitude of concepts upon the target concept “Investments” and conducts its statistical analysis (reveals concepts that perform the biggest dissonance of the system). Article is written in Ukrainan
Sherstennykov Y. V. Model optimisation of interaction of small and large enterprises (p. 298  305)
The determining feature of a small enterprise (SE) is absence of its inertia, in other words, its ability to quickly adapt to the market situation and pass to output of new products. This feature makes a SE an attractive partner for a large enterprise (LE). The world experience proves that different forms of integration of SE between themselves, and also with LE, which are established under modern conditions of doing business, are efficient. The goal of the article is to develop a set of economic and mathematical models, which allow studying interconsistent production activity of LE and SE within such forms of cooperation as franchise, outsourcing and cluster and perform project planning of joint operation of enterprises. While considering different forms of cooperation as vertically integrated systems, the article develops a set of economic and mathematical models and offers methods of optimal project planning of joint activity of enterprises. The conducted calculations prove effectiveness of application of such forms of integration as franchise, outsourcing and cluster when conducting small and large businesses in market conditions. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №32013
Lebedeva L. M., Poluektova N. R. Application of system dynamics for assessment of changes of the level of stock after introduction of ERP systems (p. 321  329)
Application of information management system is an important element of ensuring business effectiveness for any modern enterprise. However, the permanent growth of the cost of such systems requires application of new approaches to assessment of influence of complex information systems upon the level of stock. The article describes a structure of the model and specifically those elements that allow assessment of reduction of delays connected with automation. It offers to assess a change of the stock level with the use of methods of system dynamics. The results are based on imitation experiments of the stock level in the production and sales system with the use of the AnyLogic software system. Article is written in English
Guryanova L. S., Trunova T. M., Nikolaev I. V. Econometric modelling of enterprise financial activity (p. 330  337)
The article considers specific features of application of vector autoregression technologies and models of error correcting in the study of strategic financial position of an enterprise. It offers an algorithm of selection of the method of forecasting interconnected financial indicators. It develops dynamic systems of indicators of external and internal financial environment of an enterprise. The obtained results could be used in strategic management of the enterprise financial activity. Article is written in Russian
Mityaeva T. L. Model instruments of effective segmentation of the fast food market (p. 338  344)
The article presents results of optimisation steptype calculations of economic effectiveness of promotion of fast food with consideration of key parameters of assessment of efficiency of the marketing strategy of segmentation. The article justifies development of a mathematical model on the bases of 3Dpresentations and threedimensional system of management variables. The modern applied mathematical packages allow formation not only of onedimensional and twodimensional arrays and analyse links of variables, but also of threedimensional, besides, the more links and parameters are taken into account, the more adequate and adaptive are results of modelling and, as a result, more informative and strategically valuable. The article shows modelling possibilities that allow taking into account strategies and reactions on formation of the marketing strategy under conditions of entering the fast food market segments. Article is written in Russian
Sherstennykov Y. V. Modelling a duopoly market of the daytoday goods (p. 345  352)
Management of competitiveness of a production enterprise is directly connected with issues of formation of competitive strategies, which requires a thorough analysis of those components of the enterprise activity, which could become the basis of formation and strengthening of stable competitive advantages. The existing models do not take into account the market infrastructure and, that is why, not quite suitable for being used in the practical activity of a firm in a competitive market. The article develops dynamic models of quantitative and pricing duopolies, which describe activity of firms, which deal with production, storing and selling daytoday goods. The models allow taking into account interdependence of the current state of the market and current production facilities of enterprises. The proposed models give a possibility of a purposeful selection of strategic behaviour of duopolists. The conducted analysis of strategies of competitive firms revealed significant influence of market characteristics upon results of economic activity of firms. Article is written in Ukrainan
Yatsenko R. N., Balykov O. H. Simulation cobweb model of price formation with delayed supply (p. 352  358)
The article presents a simulation cobweb model of price formation with delayed supply. It considers cases with absence and availability of random factors. Randomness is presented in the model as a concept of games with nature with the use of Markov chains. The article studies activity of the retail link in the described environment. Article is written in Russian
Vereshchahіna H. V., Strupynska N. V. Modelling borders of expediency of use of money funds for ensuring efficiency of marketing activity of industrial enterprises (p. 359  364)
The article offers improvement of methods of determining the limit exceeding which additional attraction of money funds does not ensure efficiency of marketing activity. These methods are based on the use of theoretical approach based on analysis of change of marginal utility. This approach lies in: 1) the use of the correlationregression analysis of dependency of change of indicators of efficiency of enterprise activity on change of the volume of resources (money funds) directed at conduct of marketing activity; and 2) determination of first derivatives (extreme values, if possible) of relevant functions. Practical use of the offered methods allows determination of the maximum volume of investments into the marketing activity required for ensuring its efficiency. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42013
Kovalchuk K. F., Nykytenko O. K. Improvement of the method of forecasting financial indicators with consideration of the rules of the Elliott wave principle (p. 384  391)
The article improves the model of forecasting financial indicators with consideration of the rules of the Elliott wave principle. It justifies the use of the common scale of qualitative terms for describing the knowledge matrix. It offers a mathematical mechanism for assessment of characteristics of consistency and fullness of knowledge through introduction of support of decision making not one but several fuzzy logical statements with various operations of conjunction and disjunction and also application of voting for identifying the most probable answer about the further market movement. The article offers to use a check on correspondence with “clear” rules for reduction of influence of incorrect templates in the process of model adjustment upon the educating sampling. It offers to use the model exclusively for shortterm forecasting. Article is written in Ukrainan
Malуarets L. M., Senkevych B. V., Zhukov A. V. Multicriterial optimisation task of managing efficiency of production and economic activity of an enterprise (p. 392  400)
The article develops a multicriterial optimisation task of managing efficiency of production and economic activity of an industrial enterprise. It justifies specification of the model of managing efficiency of production and economic activity of an industrial enterprise. In order to compose functions of a goal and partial criteria, it recommends to structure efficiency of production and economic activity of an enterprise by three components: efficiency of subsystems of production and economic activity, efficiency of use of individual types of resources and socioeconomic efficiency, each of which is determined with an individual scorecard. The function of the goal and partial criteria should be developed with the use of methods of multidimensional statistical analysis: canonical analysis and factor analysis. The article offers to form the system of restrictions in a multicriterial optimisation task of managing efficiency of production and economic activity of an industrial enterprise with the use of instruments of descriptive statistics. The article provides a solution of the multicriterial optimisation task of managing efficiency of production and economic activity of an industrial enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainan
Savchenko K. V. Scientific and methodical approach to identifying lags of the stabilisation financial policy (p. 401  408)
The article studies the problem of identifying lags when applying instruments of stabilisation financial policy of the state. The author justifies a scientific and methodical approach to this identification. It offers a selection of instruments of moneyloan and budgettax policies, which exert the biggest influence upon the general indicator of the state of economy. These instruments are as follows: average weighted rate by all instruments (average quarterly value); refinancing of banks by the National Bank of Ukraine, including direct repurchase agreement transactions; NBU interventions in the currency market of Ukraine (balance); aggregate tax rate; time for taxes payment; state purchases (total amount – factual expenditures – during the reporting period by concluded agreements on purchase of goods, works and services); and subsidies for production and import. The conducted analysis of dependencies between the integral assessment of the financial policy and the said instruments shows that lags of the monetary instruments of the policy are shorter than fiscal ones. The obtained results allow variation of application of stabilising instruments depending on duration of relevant lags, which would allow application of development of longterm political decisions, development of justified plans of economic development and ensuring their execution. Article is written in Ukrainan
Khayluk S. A. Method of complex assessment of efficiency of the banking system (p. 409  414)
The goal of the article lies in justification of the method of assessment and analysis of dynamics of change of efficiency of the banking system of a country for a certain period. In the result of analysis, systematisation and generalisation of scientific works of many scientists, the article offers definition of the “efficiency of the banking system” notion. In the result of the study the article specifies criteria of efficiency of functioning of the banking system. It offers and describes, using an example, a complex multicriterial model of assessment of efficiency of functioning of the banking system, based on the Bayesian approach, which would allow assessment of the latter from the point of view of ability to perform the set functions and achieve certain goals. Using the Bayesian analysis allows obtaining numerical characteristics of efficiency unlike the traditional methods, which provide a descriptive characteristic only. The prospect of further studies in this direction is further development of the proposed model with the aim of its use for a comparative analysis of efficiency of functioning of banking systems of a number of countries at a certain moment of time. The use of the results of modelling would allow optimisation of the structure and increase of efficiency of activity of the banking system. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12014
Kostenko E., Kuznichenko V. M., Lapshyn V. I. Generalized continuous linear model of international trade (p. 315  322)
The probabilitybased approach to the linear model of international trade based on the theory of Markov processes with continuous time is analysed. A generalized continuous model of international trade is built, in which the transition of the system from state to state is described by linear differential equations. The methodology of how to obtain the intensity matrices, which are differential in nature, is shown, and the same is done for their corresponding transition matrices for processes of purchasing and selling. In the process of the creation of the continuous model, functions and operations of matrices were used in addition to the Laplace transform, which gave the analytical form of the transition matrices, and therefore the expressions for the state vectors of the system. The obtained expressions simplify analysis and calculations in comparison to other methods. The values of the continuous transition matrices include in themselves the results of discrete model of international trade at moments in time proportional to the time step. The continuous model improves the quality of planning and the effectiveness of control of international trade agreements. Article is written in English
Lukianenko I. H., Zhuk V. M. Specific features of modelling rules of monetary policy on the basis of hybrid regression models with a neural component (p. 323  329)
The article considers possibilities and specific features of modelling economic phenomena with the help of the category of models that unite elements of econometric regressions and artificial neural networks. This category of models contains autoregression neural networks (ARNN), regressions of smooth transition (STR/STAR), multimode regressions of smooth transition (MRSTR/MRSTAR) and smooth transition regressions with neural coefficients (NCSTR/NCSTAR). Availability of the neural network component allows models of this category achievement of a high empirical authenticity, including reproduction of complex nonlinear interrelations. On the other hand, the regression mechanism expands possibilities of interpretation of the obtained results. An example of multimode monetary rule is used to show one of the cases of specification and interpretation of this model. In particular, the article models and interprets principles of management of the UAH exchange rate that come into force when economy passes from a relatively stable into a crisis state. Article is written in Ukrainan
Poliakova O. Y., Shlykova V. O. Modelling changes of foreign trade relations in the context of European Union expansion (p. 330  336)
The article analyses experience of foreign and domestic researchers on the use of gravity models for detecting factors of influence upon the foreign trade relations between countries. Using the EU example the authors tested the assumption that redistribution of influences of indicators upon volumes of international trade takes place along with expansion of integration associations. The article builds ten modifications of the gravity model for various groups of EU countries on the basis of data for 2003 and 2012 years with introduction of additional explanatory variables, including the fictitious ones. Volume of export of goods is selected as a dependent variable. The article identifies that the most stable in time factor of influence upon the volume of trade between countries is the sizes of their population, significance of GDP volumes and distances between partners reduces and belonging to “old” countries members of EU becomes an insignificant factor. The article proves that it is necessary to use additional variables in accordance with specific features of interrelations between countries at each stage of integration association functioning. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sokolovskyi D. B. Modeling of ineffective Norms of economic Agents’ Behavior in Terms of Relationship of «Investor – Government» type (p. 337  342)
This paper considers relationship between investors and government in frame of their activity in some economic system. Author analyzed the reasons and proposed model of decisions (behavior) of investors, depending on the parameters of economic environment in which they act. Author used the model to estimate the following: 1) the favorable conditions for agents of different groups for shifting into the economy with better investment climate; 2) the agents’ attitude towards appearance in economy of another agents’; 3) the agents’ will to invest into improvement of economic climate environment in which they act; 4) the government’s will to invest into improvement of national economy. This study suggests that the government, contrary to common belief, usually shows no real interest in maintaining and improving the economic climate in the country. Even if the economic climate is relatively unfavorable, can select tax parameters under which such a situation will satisfy not only government but also investors. Author formal argued that successive realization of natural behavioral motives of economic agents in analyzed economic system finally leads to «closure» of economics and to (establishing) of incomplete market. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22014
Blahun I. S., Kvasnii Z. V. Modeling of Differentiation of Relations in the Small and Mediumsized Enterprises Sector on the Regional Level (p. 326  333)
The aim of the article is to study the differences between the bonds in the small and mediumsized enterprises on the regional level. The paper analyzes the factors affecting the development of the SME sector in the region, focus is on the relationship between the number of active subjects and consumer demand from households. Their contribution to the investment processes and the creation of jobs in the regions was taken into account. The correlations between the number of active entities in the regions and the relevant variables were investigated. The spatiotemporal data in the range of 2007 – 2012 years was considered. It was found that economical and social conditions significantly affect the formation of the number of active SMEs in the regions. At a negative correlation with the number of active SMEs remains the urbanization level of regions, on the positive – the level of the sold production of industry, the number of tourists. The results of spatiotemporal modeling of panel data confirm a significant impact on the number of active SME level of investment in each sector in the regions. The formation of investment is also affected by the dynamics of sales in the regional market and business income. Article is written in Ukrainan
Kuzmin O. Y., Zhezhukha V. Y., Gorodyska N. A. Tools of Game Theory in Price Setting for Engineering Products (p. 334  339)
The paper investigates the conceptual and categorical structure as well as the tools of game theory in the frame of the structure evaluation of engineering payments during the implementation of engineering projects by engineering companies. The process of price setting for engineering products using game theory is considered as a game with two participants involved: an engineering company and the environment of an engineering service customer. The paper examines options for forming “pure” strategies of such participants and specifies the peculiarities of forming probable options for implementation of their “pure” strategies by the environment of an engineering service customer. The author outlines practical instructions for payoff matrices. The article defines the process of determination of the dependence of the anticipated value of an engineering company’s aggregate income and the level of risk on the structure of engineering payments on condition that any of "mixed" strategies is applied. The paper then goes on to present instructions for setting the parameters of these payments’ optimal structure through maximization of the utility function of an engineering company and for determining the absolute values of payments which comply with such a structure. The author analyzes the causes for adjustment of relative structural particles and absolute values of an engineering company’s initial and periodic payments according to engineering project implementation. The perspectives for further research in this direction should lie in the substantiation of the provision for money cost consideration in time throughout the price setting in engineering activities. Article is written in Ukrainan
Bobyr O. I., Shevchenko N. V. Evaluation of Cyclic Characteristics of Investment Banking Using the Fractal Analysis (p. 340  348)
The aim of the article is to study the characteristics of cyclic investment banking using fractal analysis. Analyzing scientific works of Russian and foreign scientists to assess the characteristics of cyclic investment banks in Ukraine were invited to use the method of R/Sanalysis. As a result of studies of capital investment by bank loans in Ukraine within time series (2006 – 2013), it was found that the study of time series has a different memory depth for tempo and quantitative indicators (5 and 9, respectively) identified six quasicycles (5 completed and one unfinished) of time series. These results provide a basis for predicting the size of a bounding box values of the future and to identify the trend of the time series of capital investments by bank loans. Prospects for further research in this direction is to predict the dynamics of capital investment by bank loans on the basis of the results obtained, the definition of countercyclical regulatory the investment activity of banks in Ukraine in the framework of macroprudential regulation. Article is written in Ukrainan
Burtnyak I. V., Malytska H. P. Research of OrnsteinUhlenbeck Process Using the Spectral Analysis Methods (p. 349  356)
The purpose of this paper is to develop methods for calculating the approximate prices for a broad class of securities with the tools of spectral analysis, singular and regular wave theory in the case of exposure to fast and slowacting factors. Price options depend on stochastic volatility, depending on the route. Finding the price is reduced to the problem of finding own values and own functions of a certain equation. Combining the methods of the spectral theory of singular and regular perturbation working with the infinitesimal generators of the twodimensional diffusion approximation the price of financial instruments as of own function expansion can be calculated. The study extended method of finding indicative prices for a wide class of derivative assets. One of the main advantages of our pricing methodology is that by combining the methods of the spectral theory of singular and regular perturbation; computing the price of the asset is reduced to solving the equation by finding the own values and own functions of the two solutions of the Poisson equation, reflecting the influence of various factors. Prospects for further research in this direction are the improvement and development of methods of spectral analysis for application in the study of stochastic volatility, depending on many heterogeneous factors taking place in the stock markets. Article is written in Ukrainan
Oliskevych M. O. Empirical Modeling of Longterm Interrelations and Shortterm Dynamic Adjustments of Private Consumption in Ukraine (p. 357  365)
In view of economic instability in Ukraine, it’s getting more and more relevant to study macroeconomic interrelations that would not only be based on longterm equilibrium trends, but at the same time would also represent the dynamic response of variables to shocks affecting the economic environment. The paper is aimed at an empirical study of longterm interrelations and a shortterm adjustment mechanism when making consumer decisions by households in Ukraine. The paper presents a statistical analysis of the dynamic properties of the series of consumption, income and inflation. The paper also defines the stochastic trend and stochastic seasonality, it tests the existence and direction of causality in the interrelations, as well as it substantiates and estimates the cointegrating longterm equilibrium interrelation. Basing on the detected cointegration of the studied series, we developed an econometric dynamic error correction model that includes economic equilibrium relations derived from macroeconomic theory and also allows to model shortterm effects of various factors on the rate of consumption change, such as changes in the rate of growth of income, changes in savings rates over the previous year, seasonality and deviations from a longterm equilibrium resulting from unanticipated shocks in the economy. The developed ECMmodel is wellsuited to predict changes in the levels and dynamics of fluctuations of the actual values of consumption and also has practical application in assessing and predicting the response of consumption, and thus aggregate demand, in making political and economic decisions both in a longterm perspective and in shortterm adjustments. Article is written in English
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №32014
Blahun I. S., Catsedan A. V. Modeling Relationships between Factors of Regional Competitiveness and Its Development Potential (p. 324  334)
The aim of this article was studying the fundamental relationships between factors of regional competitiveness in its formation process, with consideration of the spatial structure of the economy. The article analyzes the concept of regional competition and grounds the urgency of definition of the potential of regional competitiveness with application of the theory of gravity. The potential of regional competitiveness is considered as a complex of synthesized factors of economic nature in their relationships with other determinants of the region development. Elements of cartographic modeling of regional competitiveness potential were used as one of the methods of latent variable analysis of crosssectional data, which had made possible to identify and recognize the hidden latent factor groups with immanent structure of regional competitiveness according to the sources of their forming. Statistical method was applied for this purpose, considering the need for analysis of relationships between synthesized multidimensional variables, with construction of new variables by means of different indicators. The proposed modeling apparatus was evaluated for the case of regions of Ukraine. The results of the study revealed significant differentiation of regional competitiveness factors with increasing of imbalances due to the influence of latent variables for the individual regions. Article is written in Ukrainan
Dmytryshyn L. I., Pavljuk T. D. The Spatial Model of Unification and Competition in the Regional Tourism Sector (p. 335  340)
The article draws attention to accounted communication of regional tourism entities in combination with their inner potential, which is currently of particular relevance and of scientific interest in the aspect of modeling such relationships to form competitiveness of tourism facilities and the entire regional system of tourism. The article was aimed at building a model of spatial competition, taking into account interactions of regional tourism entities in the form of information exchange through partnership, cooperation, and coproduction. Considering the source for changes of competition level, the factors were grouped in the form of internal and external levers. The generalized measure tool of the efficiency of a complex of internal factors, is the development potential of the regional tourism entities, which is to be regarded as a resulted internal lever of the chosen price policy of such entities itself. A measurer of the effectiveness of external factors is the level of communication between the environmental subjects. In this study it is proposed to complete the model of Hotelling spatial competition, which includes centrifugal force (price competition), with centripetal forces (external factors). It is shown, that equilibrium prices and locations of tourist entities are determinated by the standardization and competition. Particularly, the balance can be achieved in a wide range of minimum to maximum differentiation depending on the relative strength of the external effect (unification) as compared with the internal effect (price competition). It is found, that the condition of the minimum differentiation is fulfilled, when cooperation (centripetal force) becomes the dominanting factor. Article is written in Ukrainan
Plets I. I. Modeling the Threshold Level of the Internal Debt in Interrelation with Budget Deficit and the External Component of the Government Debt (p. 341  347)
The objective of the article is construction of a model for assessment and prediction of the internal government debt considering the trends and consistent patterns of its external component, as well as provision of a rationale for conversion of the external government debt into the internal debt. The article elaborates on the essence of the theoretical model of assessment and prediction of the internal government debt considering the trends and consistent patterns of its external component. The behavior of the total government debt of Ukraine from 2007 till 2013 is analyzed. The structure of the government debt of Ukraine as of 01 January 2014 is considered in terms of repayment currencies. A technical approach is proposed for modeling the relations connecting the external, internal government debt, aggregate output, budget deficit. A study of the effect of the size of budget deficit, the external component of government debt on the internal debt of a state is conducted, which, unlike the known values, allows determination of the threshold level of the internal debt and the influence exerted on it by interest rate indices, exchange rate and GDP change rates, forgiveness of the external debt. A model is proposed for determination of the threshold level of the internal debt depending on its “loading” created by the external component, and conditions are formulated determining practicality of conversion of the external debt into the internal debt. Article is written in Ukrainan
Samojlik M. S. Multifunctional Simulation of Optimization Solutions to Provide the Resource and Environmental Security Taking into Account the Regional Perspective (p. 348  356)
Modern intensification of the pace of development of the raw materials based national economy, which is accompanied by an increase in pollution, inefficient use of natural resources potential, triggers the need for resource and environmental security as the basis for a balanced development of the regions of Ukraine. Therefore, this article developed and scientifically grounded the methodological principles of resource and environmental security in the region on the basis of multiobjective optimization of environmental, economic and technological characteristics and the criteria of this system from a regional perspective, on the basis of which the decisionmaking algorithm was formed to ensure the resource and environmental security in the region. In order to study the effectiveness of investment in environmental facilities, a criterion for evaluating the performance management system resource and environmental security in the region was suggested, which accounts for the effect of environmental factors, the level of impact on the environment, as well as market conditions for the functioning of enterprises involved in this area. The feature of this criterion is that it takes full account of the impact of environmental risks on economic performance. The ecological and economic model to ensure the resource and environmental security in the region was designed; it has a set of feasible solutions and, therefore, offers a selection of the best of them, taking into account the objective functions. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study were the results of fundamental and applied research in the field of economics and regional studies, environmental economics, research and development of domestic and foreign scholars on the management of the resource potential of the region. The results obtained allowed the study to determine the direction of improving the system of environmentally sound development of the regions of Ukraine, aimed at more efficient use of natural and economic potential of the territory and resource. Article is written in Ukrainan
Skitsko V. I. Modeling in Assessing the Level of Logistics Service (p. 357  362)
The article deals with the problem of estimating the actual level of logistics service of companies. It is shown that, despite the rather large number of scientific and practical literature on the subject, there are a number of issues that require further investigation and clarification. Logistic Services is a set of services that are provided in the order, purchase, delivery and maintenance of enterprise. There are various ways of estimating the level of logistics services through a range of economicmathematical methods and models, but the everchanging business conditions require them to improve or develop new ones. This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation index of logistics service, which integrates its (logistics services) private performance and is calculated as a convolution on the total efficiency of the linear priority of these indicators. Calculation of the complex index consists of the following steps: identification of particular indicators and the construction of the hierarchical structure of the complex index; receive data for a certain period for the study group of consumers; normalization of indicators; the construction of the weight vectors and calculation of the highest level, including the complex. It is shown how to calculate the weight vector in cases where, the opinion of only one expert and consumer groups (or experts) is taken into account. The complexity and duration of the calculations of the complex index depends on a number of particular indicators, which can be configured now. Proposed comprehensive indicator allows the management of the enterprise to obtain a single number that reflects the level of logistics services and takes into account a number of aspects. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42014
Golofaieva I. P. Financial Regulation of Inflationary Developments in Ukraine on the Basis of the Cognitive Approach (p. 432  438)
The article discusses the essence and primary factors causing the inflationary developments in Ukraine. The effects of inflation on macro and microeconomic performance indicators of the government and economic operators were described. A cognitive model for the study of the inflationary development dynamics was constructed taking into account the causeandeffect relations between inflation and other macroeconomic indicators, in particular the currency exchange rate, which permits identifying the priority focus areas for the state in the future helping decrease the inflation rate. The cognitive model serves as the basis for development of inflation situation scenarios, which enables using the model to identify the possible scenarios, ways and mechanisms of influencing the situation in order to achieve the desired results, to avoid the undesirable consequences, and to develop a set of measures to influence the predicted situation. The proposed scenarios are characterized by the initial data, managerial influence, and the predicted result. Thus, using the cognitive approach to modeling of the inflationary developments will help improve management efficiency at each level of the hierarchy, since introduction of modern information technology to the management of the financial processes of the state will ensure adoption of the corresponding antiinflationary policy in the process of achieving the sought state development objectives. Article is written in Ukrainan
Laktionova O. A. Methodological Approach to Evaluation of Market Flexibility in Terms of Cyclic Economy Development (p. 439  454)
The article defines a methodological approach to evaluation of both market flexibility in the postcrisis period of recovery of the business activity and growth of needs for economic operators in the financial securing. It has been determined that evaluation of flexibility of a financial system providing for the movement and transformation of financial resources through the financial market is based on assessment of flexibility as the resulting characteristics of efficient adaptation of market to the challenges of the economic environment, but also as a buffer stock or a potential of adaptive answering. As an expost flexibility indicators were used: duration, amplitude, asymmetry, speed of recovery and expansions of the functional capacity of the market. The integrated value of the Ukrainian market flexibility towards the increase of financial support for the economy in the period 20082013 has been estimated. Article is written in Ukrainan
Malуarets L. M., Smoliakova O. M. Identification of Internal Interconnections as a Precondition for Economic Strength of an Enterprise (p. 455  465)
The study substantiates the necessity of taking into account the degree of interconnection among the elements and components of economic strength of an enterprise and analyzing the internal causeandeffect relations linking the indicators describing each of the economic strength components: the costs, the production, the financial component, functioning in terms of the life cycle, stability on the produce and capital goods markets while addressing economic strength issues. For such an analysis, it is recommended to use multivariate statistical methods which permit identifying the interconnections among individual indicators, among the components, which allows establishing the rating of the crosssystem interrelationships among the indicators, namely factor analysis and canonical analysis. Methodological guidelines for analysis of the internal interconnections in the economic strength of an enterprise were developed. These guidelines propose the following sequence of stages: determination of the conceptual content of the economic strength of the enterprise; formation of systems of individual indicators describing the components of economic strength; singling out internal latent factors for each of the components in order to identify close interelement links; detailed economic analysis of the most significant indicators; identification of the internal crosssystem interrelationships among the economic strength components and rating the influence of the indicators; singling out the most significant indicators ensuring close intrasystemic connections for maintenance of the economic strength of the enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainan
Pursky O. I., Grynjuk B. V., Mazoha D. P. Modeling of the Transaction Expenses of Consumers in Electronic Trading (p. 466  473)
The article deals with modeling of the transaction expenses of consumers in electronic trading for various territorial urbanization categories according to two product sales channels based on the classical Salop model. Characteristics of the primary product sales channels in electronic trading were identified, namely delivery to the place of residence and delivery to the nearest collection point. The transaction expenses were analyzed depending on the delivery distance and product weight. The average product delivery distance was determined for different urbanization categories. The following characteristics were proposed as indicators determining the average product delivery distance in electronic trading: the number of online shop page views with a purpose of buying products, average workload for each of the product sales channels, the number of buyers’ addresses on the product delivery route, the overall delivery route distance. The article also studies the reliance of the transaction expenses on the number of buyers’ addresses on the delivery route. The obtained results demonstrated that the transaction expenses of buyers in electronic trading can be reduced significantly through optimization of the product delivery routes, which entails additional advantages within the context of competitive commercial market. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12015
Blahun I. S., Ilchuk P. G. Models of Interconnection between the Internationalization Level and Financial Results of Operations of Ukrainian Enterprises (p. 326  339)
The article aims to test the hypothesis that the internationalization level and financial results of enterprises are closely connected, and a higher internationalization level ensures improved financial results. An individual task consists in construction of regression models which would describe such connection for enterprises from all areas (spheres) of economic activities carrying out export operations, with a high degree of accuracy. The article studies the existence of an interconnection between the internationalization level and financial results of enterprises on the basis of correlation and regression analysis. Data obtained from all public joint stock companies involved in export whose stocks are listed on stock exchanges were utilized to verify the existence of all types of this connection by constructing multifactor regression models. Reliable multiple regression models were constructed for enterprises from various areas (spheres) of economic activities, which describe the effect of the internationalization level on the financial results of operations of the enterprises. The study allowed confirming the hypothesis in terms of the existence of an interconnection between the internationalization level and financial results of operations of enterprises and refuting it in terms of the directly proportional dependence between financial results and the internationalization level of enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainan
Dorovsky O. V. Structure and Goal Analysis of Development Scenarios for the Pharmaceutical Industry of Ukraine (p. 340  348)
The article deals with the application of the structure and goal analysis to realization of development scenarios for the pharmaceutical industry of Ukraine on the basis of the cognitive approach and modeling the development of weakly structured situations. The article discusses the substance and specific aspects of application of the cognitive approach and substantiates the practicality of its utilization when analyzing weakly structured systems and situations. The work develops a logical model for determination of the strategic development of the pharmaceutical industry of Ukraine and constructs the cognitive model for the development of the pharmaceutical industry of Ukraine. Carrying out the structure and goal analysis allowed comparing the characteristics of realization of the possible industry development scenarios by determining the focus of each of them and the effectiveness of their influence on the structure of the development goal vector of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical industry. The conducted analysis proved that for the general development of the pharmaceutical industry of Ukraine the combinatory scenario is the most efficient one, and it should be grounded in the reasonable state investment policy, creation of an appropriate business environment in the country, encouragement of competition among producers of pharmaceutical products, and state support for the development of the industry. Article is written in Ukrainan
Zakharchenko P. V., Savushkin D. I. A Model of Development of the Resort and RecreationBased Economy on the Basis of the Transformational Cycle (p. 349  355)
In today’s world economy, resort recreation is one of the highestgrossing business spheres. Ukraine has a powerful resort and recreation potential that can result in practical economic benefit if developed efficiently. This requires formation of a systemic development concept for such systems, of which economic transformations are an integral part. The article aims to develop an approach to modeling of the transformational development of resort and recreation systems based on the transformational cycle that performs the role of the key mechanism in such transformations. The study allowed substantiating the conceptual foundation of a systemic study of the economy of resort and recreation establishments as a set of transformational cycle stages. Unlike any alternative approach, the proposed approach implies the possibility of considering the development of the resort and recreation system economy as an interaction of transformational processes. This served as a basis for construction of a model of the economic development of resort and recreation systems using the transformational cycle. Study of the model demonstrates varying economic trends that eventually result in substantial economic growth. Article is written in Ukrainan
Kovalchuk A. K. A Cluster Model of the Human Resources Management (p. 356  360)
The article aims to develop a cluster model for evaluation of human resources allowing classification of Ukrainian regions depending on the parameters of condition and potential for development of their human resources. For the purpose of defining the function of the regional object belonging to a certain class of cyclical development (precrisis, crisis, postcrisis, normal), the article provides a rationale for utilization of the fuzzy modification of the RobbinsMonro stochastic algorithm in the space of orthogonal functions generated with the aid of the Hermite recurrence relation. The developed cluster model for evaluation of the regional economic objects is adjusted for determination of the cyclical development stage of Ukrainian regions depending on the state and potential for development of their human resources. The dividing surfaces of classes separate one class from another, which significantly increases the classification accuracy of the model and reduces the classification uncertainty area. Taking into account the determinacy level of class prototype objects at each iteration step significantly increases the convergence speed of the RobbinsMonro iteration procedure. The developed cluster model allows increasing the promptness and quality of regional management through differentiation of management measures and use of typical managerial decisions with respect to a specific human resources development stage, namely: normal, precrisis, crisis, or postcrisis stages. Article is written in Ukrainan
Melnikov S. V. Dynamic Monopoly Pricing Under the Reference Price Effect (p. 361  365)
One of the important aspects of the theory and practice of firms is development of an optimal dynamic pricing strategy. Traditional marketing models consider the consumer as a rational agent who makes decisions based on current prices. However, in the dynamics, with repeated purchases, consumers form price expectations or reference prices which are compared with current prices. This effect is known as “the reference price effect”. The work focuses on the dynamic monopoly pricing in the presence of the reference price effect. To study this question, the author constructed a model of the monopoly selling the product over T periods. The study considers a case when the reference prices are formed on the basis of prices from the previous period. In this case, buyers’ purchase decisions also rely upon the ratio of the current and previous prices. In the long run, the monopoly can have various efficiency criteria. The article considers two efficiency criteria: the maximum profit within each period of time and the maximum profit for the whole time. The study allowed finding discrete and equilibrium solutions. A comparative analysis of profits of the monopoly by two criteria resulted in the following conclusions. In comparison with the situation of the absence of the reference effect, optimization by the global criterion increases profits and that by the local criterion reduces them. Obtained results show that in case of optimization by the global criterion the reference effect dwindles in the long run. Article is written in English
Oleshko T. I., Leszczynski O. L., Gorbacheva O. M. Construction of a Graphic Model of Fuzzy Network Survivability in Airports (p. 366  371)
While studying the question of the airport lifecycle, the authors used the example of an airport network to solve the task of construction of a graphic model of fuzzy network survivability. For the purpose of solving the set task, a fuzzy graph with an unpaired vertex set and a paired arc set was introduced. The study allowed determining stability of market environment, the route, the survivability rate for the introduced graph. The article substantiates that the offered conceptual framework allows evaluating the airport system from the standpoint of ability of its objects and their connections to withstand the effects of external and internal economic, social and political, environmental incidents, to preserve and restore the system objects that have undergone negative influences. The study concludes that the economic survivability of the airport system is a characteristic which will permit evaluating the risk of the economic instability of the system and the threat of bankruptcy. The studied characteristics can extend the set of tools for indication and assessment of the economic strength of individual airports – objects of the studied network by providing the system with additional qualitative characteristics. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sergienko O. A., Filatova L. D., Soldatova Y. Y. Modeling of Survival Capability and Spread of Crisis Situations in the Banking Market of Ukraine (p. 372  381)
The article studies the problem of survival capability and spread of crisis situations in the banking market of Ukraine on the basis of construction of economic and mathematical models for evaluation and analysis of the primary factors of survival capability and spread of panic processes among commercial banks of Ukraine. The authors considered the most general regression model in survival analysis – the Cox proportional intensity model, applied the KaplanMeier procedure as a descriptive method for the study of censored data for evaluation of the survival function, construction of lifetime tables, and fitting of survival distribution which allow comparing the survival rates in two and more groups. The proposed model for analysis of survival capability of commercial banks on the basis of paired comparisons of groups of banks with varying levels of financial firmness will likely allow identifying the factors influencing the survival capability as well as comparing the survival capability levels in several groups, singling out the most influential factors in each group in crisis situations that result in bank panics. The article describes realization of the model of spread of crisis situations on the basis of fastpaced dynamic processes with a view to determining the character and signs of the bank panic, as well as corresponding counteraction tools. The panic spread process was simulated which corresponds to the actual process as the synergy effect was assessed and taken into account which is typical for the interaction of “infected specimens”. This model allows modeling panics in the banking market and evaluating its responsiveness. The constructed models can be adapted for any bank groups and are capable of taking into account various parameters depending on the analysis character and purpose, which will enable banks to identify the most essential factors of survival and panic spread in the context of instability, financial crisis, increased competition. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22015
Zinovchuk V. V., Rud V. V. Clustering Enterprises of the Meat Processing Industry (p. 258  264)
The types and forms of vertical integration were analyzed, it was found that the integrated combination may take various forms, in particular, contract, cluster, holding and corporate. It was determined that the amount of the added value and the form of integration correlate most of all, the chosen in the dissertation research methodology of classification of meat processing industry enterprises was justified. For the effective added value management the agricultural producers and meat processing enterprises should rely upon the search and application of organizational and economic mechanisms. An important role is played by the integration processes that enhance the overall efficiency of production. The integration is in the expansion and deepening of production and technological relations, sharing of resources, combining the capital, creating favorable conditions for economic activities of the enterprises, etc. Article is written in Ukrainan
Shkolnik I. A., Bukhtiarova A. G. Studying Causality in Formation of Deposit Resources of Physical Persons in Ukraine (p. 265  272)
The article studies the relationships and interdependences between indicators of volume of retail deposits and retail deposits per capita and indicators characterizing the socioeconomic development of Ukraine and level of the banking system development. The level of deposit insurance coverage in the Ukrainian system was also attributed to the system of indicators. The study has revealed that the level of deposits (including per capita) is affected by the following parameters: the economically active population; incomes (including per capita); expenses of the population (including per capita); GDP (including per capita). In addition, the deposits of individuals are affected by the population figures and the deposits per capita by the indicator of banks assets. The prospect for further research in this direction is to expand the list of the indicators that can characterize the socioeconomic development of the banking sector in Ukraine and determine their impact on the volume of deposits of physical persons. Further research in this area could lead to changing the strategy of the entire banking sector of Ukraine. Article is written in English
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №32015
Guryanova L. S. Models of Selecting the Tools to Ensure a Balance of the SocioEconomic Development of the Regions (p. 281  288)
The current stage of the national economy development is characterized by aggravation of contradictions, increasing imbalances at the regional level. The increasing unevenness in regional development, on the one hand, is an objective consequence of the spontaneous market mechanisms of regional development, and on the other — creates social tension leading to the forced migration of the population, formation of imbalances in the labor market, sharpens the problems in development of social infrastructure, reduces the stability of the budget system. The existing trends suggest the weakness of the state regulation mechanisms of regional development. This causes the need to improve the models of choosing effective tools to ensure a balance of socioeconomic development of the regions. The paper proposes a complex of models that includes the following components: models of assessing regional development imbalances; models of identifying the spheres of life activities of regions — the sources of imbalances; models of assessing the effects of the implementation of management tools for balancing regional development; model of selecting the optimal scenario of balanced economic and social development. The proposed complex of the models allows increasing the soundness of management decisions concerning the choice of tools for smoothing interregional socioeconomic differentiation, assessing the consequences of their implementation in the economic and social development of the regions. Article is written in Russian
Zhuravel K. V., Masalygina V. V. Improving the Methods for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Management Decisions on Using Immovable Property in Rail Industry (p. 289  300)
The aim of the article is to improve the methods for evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions on the use of immovable property in rail industry based on a scientifically based system of indicators of the managing company performance and the state of the immovable property and an adequate way of “convolution” of these indicators into the integral one. As a result of the research it has been proposed to improve the existing methods of evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions in the following directions: changing the method of forming the integral index to a scientifically sound and proper one; improving the system of performance indicators of immovable property management by four component groups (management and human resource, financial and economic, marketing, production), taking into account the principles of completeness, but not redundancy; changing the method of measuring indicators and, accordingly, their borders into sciencebased and proper ones. Using this technique will allow making reasonable decisions on the transfer of the rail industry objects to the management of a professional management company, choosing from a number of companies the most effective one specifically to manage a particular object (objects) of the rail industry immovable property. It has been proved that an important component of reforming the railway industry in the market conditions is the formation of an effective system of immoveable property management and development of professional form of managing the industry immovable property. Increasing the efficiency of immovable property management allows receiving the maximum benefit from using each object of property. Article is written in Ukrainan
Illiashenko O. V. The Model of Assessing the State of the Enterprise Economic Security System (p. 301  308)
The economic security system of the enterprise can not function without a control mechanism, which neutralizes the impact of negative factors and reduces intensity of threats to the stability of the enterprise activity. One of the prerequisites for the operation of the control mechanism of the economic security system is assessment of the system state. When assessing the state of the enterprise economic security there were used the main parameters of its operation by types of management (strategic, operational, financial, innovation, human resources, marketing ones). For the implementation of the functional approach to assessing the state of the enterprise economic security system, there has been developed the economic and mathematical model, the creation of which is described in the article. To clarify the categorical model results there were used local estimates of the selected management types. The proposed model allows assessing the balance of the enterprise economic security system and identifying its imperfections within the specific sphere of management. Article is written in Ukrainan
Lukianenko I. H., Oliskevych M. O. The Modelling of Registered Unemployment Rate Nonlinear Dynamics in Ukraine by Means of Threshold Autoregression (p. 309  316)
In conditions of unstable economic development of the national economy the analysis of labour market and forecast of employment and unemployment rate dynamics is of primary importance for social responsibility provision and social risks reduction in society. The purpose of the research is the empirical analysis of nonlinear dynamics of registered unemployment rate in Ukraine in conditions of increased risks and asymmetry of information and the development of corresponding complex of nonlinear threshold autoregressive models. Methodology approach is based on methods of economic theory and economic and mathematical tools. Econometric methods of analysis of nonlinear time series with nontraditional functions of distribution have been used. In the result of the empirical investigation the application of threshold autoregressive models has been justified and the row of nonlinear econometric specifications that help to explain asymmetric dynamics of unemployment has been evaluated. The resulting threshold function and value of threshold parameter, estimated on the basis of real information, determine the branching of TAR model into two different modes of behaviour that in different ways characterise dynamics of unemployment growth and fall and allow forecasting the phases of employment fall and growth in the short term. Application of the developed nonlinear econometric models of registered unemployment rate dynamics adds to characteristics of labour sector in Ukraine and allows forecasting more precisely the effects of government measures in the sphere. The defined nonlinear character of dynamics of unemployment rate certifies nonWalrasian features of labour market in Ukraine and reveals its uneven and asymmetric cyclic behaviour. Article is written in English
Pilko A. D. Perspective Directions of System Analysis and Modeling the Processes of Public Debt Management (p. 317  321)
The purpose of the article is to highlight the main results of evaluating the existing approaches to analyzing and modeling the processes of management of public debt strategy and public debt, as well as the definition of perspective directions of using the methods of system analysis and economic and mathematical tools to evaluate and analyze the efficiency of formation and implementation of the strategy of public debt management. There has been proved the priority of conducting applied research for formation and optimization of the management mechanism of the strategy, not tactics of public debt management, using the methods of system analysis and economic and mathematical tools. The current and future tasks of the system analysis strategy for public debt management have been identified. It is recommended to use indicators of economic and social security of the state and its regions as the resulting efficiency indicators of government borrowings. The approach to determining threshold levels of economic and social security, taking into account the share of public debt indicator per capita in gross national product and gross regional product per capita based on the development and analysis of discriminant models has been suggested. Article is written in Ukrainan
Rayevnyeva O. V., Aksonova I. V. Forecasting the Number of Prospective University Applicants Depending on Demographic Changes and Attractiveness of Higher Education (p. 322  335)
The purpose of the article is to develop a methodological approach to evaluating and predicting the number of prospective applicants to universities of IIIIV level of accreditation in the changing demographic situation and the drop in the level of higher education attractiveness, which is aimed at improving both the efficiency of the provided educational services as well as prestige of university graduates in the labor market. The analysis of literary sources on the problem of forecasting the number of prospective university applicants showed that this issue is considered from the standpoint of the three markets: the market of educational services, labor market and market of the population preferences concerning higher education. There has been developed a methodical approach to forecasting the number of potential university applicants, which is based on analyzing the demographic situation in the country and assessing the education market development. The analysis allowed to make a conclusion that it is appropriate to forecast the number of prospective applicants to universities of IIIIV level of accreditation taking into account the identified trends in the birth rate and factor of higher education attractiveness. On this basis a technique for evaluating the demand for services of higher education establishments has been formed and rules of recognition and estimation of the forecast situation have been developed. Prospects for further studies in this direction are forecasting the need for specialists with higher education by types of economic activities and formation on this basis of the number of allocated statefunded places. Article is written in Russian
Semenova V. G. The Use of Economic and Mathematical Methods in Studying the Effectiveness of Intellectual Property Management at Enterprises (p. 336  341)
Global trends directed towards an increasing use of intellectual property items in enterprise activity require activation of intellectual property management at enterprises in Ukraine. Formation of an effective system of intellectual property management is becoming a pressing problem for many domestic enterprises. The effectiveness of the system of intellectual property management directly depends on availability of an appropriate system of monitoring and evaluating its components. The analysis conducted in time will allow using preventative actions and developing a system of measures aimed at elimination of shortcomings in this field. The determination of methods for evaluating the effectiveness of intellectual property management is gaining the key importance. The aim of the article is justification of choosing an economic and mathematical method to evaluate the effectiveness of the components of intellectual property management at enterprises and the possibility of its application in practice. This aim has caused the need to solve the following tasks: justification of choosing an economic and mathematical method to evaluate the effectiveness of the components of intellectual property management; consideration of the main stages of the evaluation on the example of industrial enterprises. In the article the feasibility of using economic and mathematical methods (multivariate methods) to evaluate quantitative components of the system of intellectual property management (economic, innovation and human resources components) has been substantiated. On the example of cable enterprises the main stages in evaluating the effectiveness of management components by means of taxonomic analysis (based on the classic algorithm) have been studied. The obtained results allow ranking enterprises of the cable industry within a particular component and identifying the enterprisesleaders and outsiders. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sysoiev V. V. The Concept of Simulating the Logistics Management of Supplying the Forces of the State Security and Defense Sector (p. 342  351)
Logistical character of the process of supplying the forces of the state security and defense sector in conditions of the market economy predetermines using the mechanism of logistics management, which ensures formation of logistical flows, systems and chains by means of system integration and spatialtemporal balancing of the flow processes due to the global optimization of resources in the unified system of logistics. The developed concept of simulation is based on the system of conceptual provisions reflecting the characteristic features of the logistics supply management, principles and objectives of its simulation, describes the variety of approaches and techniques of simulating the architecture of the unified logistics system and management of the logistics processes in the field of supply in view of their flow character and interaction. The system of multilevel simulation, which combines in the holistic multistep process of research and improvement of logistics supply management the conceptual, structural, functional and evaluation models directed at the solving the tasks of logistics management, has been offered. There has been determined the complex of models providing a display of basic parameters and characteristics of the unified logistics system and supply process taking into account the relationship of their components and the key factors of influence, knowledge of their nature, organization and operation, search for effective solutions and achievement of the logistics management objectives on maintaining the maximal possible levels of ability of organized entities of the forces of the state security and defense sector to carry out their missions by means of minimizing logistics costs and improving the customer service quality under the given conditions of the unified system of logistics. Article is written in Ukrainan
Skitsko V. I., Ignatova I. V. Simulating the Logistics Processes of Returning Goods in the Field of ECommerce (p. 352  358)
The article describes the main aspects of returning goods to the Internet shop. A brief review of reasons and possible mechanisms of returning goods has been presented. A detailed analysis of logistics processes of returning goods as well as that of the basic mathematical models, which can be used for their simulation, has been made. The model of forecasting the volumes of returned goods caused by defects or other reasons has been suggested. Application of tools for mapping the product quality, namely, the operating characteristics curve, allowed to carry out not only forecasting the possible return of goods, but at the corresponding levels of risk to take into account the qualitative component of the returns. With the purpose of simulating logistics processes of returning goods to Internet shops there was also proposed a model of singlethreaded open queuing networks with Poisson arrivals based on the classic tools of queuing systems in tandem (Jackson network). Controlling certain parameters of the specified network allowed to optimize the Internet shop operation on the stages of processing the returns and carry out the forecast in terms of returning goods at each stage of their processing by the Internet shop. Creating controlled queuing networks according to the example described in this article will permit to cover the logistics processes of the entire Internet shop and optimize its work on the selected parameters. Article is written in Ukrainan
Iastrebova G. S., Zaruba I. P. The Models of the Work Force Distribution by Industries of the National Economy of Ukraine (p. 359  367)
In the work there has been justified the urgency of modeling the distribution of the work force in the context of increasing the competitive advantages of Ukraine’s economy in the world markets and reducing the budget deficit; the current state of work force management has been analyzed and its existing models have been studied. The balance, econometric and simulation methods for modeling the work force distribution have been offered. The work force distribution by industries of the national economy based on building models of interindustry balance according to the Ukrainian economy data has been studied. The Holt model has been built, which allowed forecasting the work force development and identifying perspective industries in terms of the work force redistribution. On the basis of the concept of system dynamics a simulation model of the work force distribution and formation of legal and shadow GDP has been developed. With the help of the simulation experiments there has been confirmed the hypothesis about the possibility of improving the production efficiency and reducing the share of shadow economy by reallocating the work force from the intangible sector to the real one. The perspective directions of the national economy development and basic measures to prevent the further shadowization of the economy have been suggested. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42015
Gvozdytskyi V. S., Klebanova T. S. NeuroFuzzy Modeling of Financial Crises in Corporate Systems (p. 302  308)
The article is devoted to developing a complex of models to evaluate the threat of formatting financial crises in corporate systems of Ukraine’s agricultural industry. The conceptual approach to the development and implementation of such econometric models has been suggested. The models for evaluating the propensity of the financial and industrial group as well as the corporation subsidiaries to bankruptcy by fuzzy neural networks have been built. A model for evaluating the impact of a financial crisis at the subsidiary on the financial state of the corporation as a whole has been developed. Conclusions on the current state of the corporation “BiscuitChocolate” and its five subsidiaries have been made. The method of “caterpillar” to build models for predicting the future values of parameters for the corporate system enterprises has been proposed. Recommendations on the implementation of anticrisis measures in the corporation have been given. Article is written in Ukrainan
Kuzmynchuk N. V., Oleksiuk T. V. A Scientific and Methodological Approach to Evaluating Strategic Measures on Management of Financial Safety at MachineBuilding Enterprises (p. 309  319)
The aim of the article is to develop a methodological approach to evaluating measures on management of financial safety at machinebuilding enterprises, which will allow forming a set of sound management decisions as to ensuring the necessary level of financial safety at applying a certain strategy and serve as a tool for improving the quality of the accepted strategic development alternatives based on nonrandom selection of the most significant management decisions adequate to a specific situation with consideration of the predicted values. There have been proposed a scientific and methodical approach to evaluating strategic measures on management of financial safety of machinebuilding enterprises based on an integrated dual evaluation: the ranking of strategic alternatives by the method of multicriteria choice based on the additive convolution for each specific strategy and every direction of financial and economic activity on the one hand and assessment of the effectiveness of the strategic measures on management of financial safety using the methodology of the utility theory — on the other. It has been determined that the validity of choosing strategic decisions on ensuring the financial safety is based on synthesis of allUkrainian practices of implementing possible alternatives with the internal potential of the enterprise (available potential) expressed in the form of benefits for the management. There have been built and presented a graphical interpretation of membership functions of the calculated fuzzy expected utility of the strategic alternatives for JSC “Smelyanskiy Electromechanical Plant”. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12016
Bril M. S. The Monitoring of Macroeconomic Indicators Based on Studying their NonStationary Dynamics in the Context of Implementing the Strategy of Sustainable SocioEconomic Development of the State (p. 264  273)
The article suggests the application of modern tools for monitoring macroeconomic indicators and studying their nonstationary dynamics in the context of implementing the strategy of sustainable socioeconomic development of the state on the basis of tools of the phase and cointegration analysis. This allows providing a comprehensive integrative assessment and conducting a sustainability analysis of the macroeconomic dynamics of Ukraine at the increasing globalization transformations in dynamics of territorial development under conditions of the global crisis processes and strengthening of nonlinear relationships and processes proceeding in them. Therefore, it requires improvement of management tools at all levels of the hierarchy and a qualitative assessment of macroeconomic indicators, dynamics of their behavior and causal relationships. The introduction of tools for studying the dynamics of interrelations of basic macroeconomic indicators on the basis of the proposed methodology for monitoring nonstationary dynamic processes will allow defining the strategy of stabilization and further development of the national economy, the qualitative state of which is determined by nonlinear asynchronous close relationship of basic macroeconomic indicators characterizing the real current state of social and economic system, and receiving adequate forecasts of the situation development in the future. Article is written in Ukrainan
Didyk A. M. Features of Evaluating the Enterprise Tax Competitiveness Using the Hierarchy Analysis Method (p. 274  281)
The aim of the article is substantiating the provisions on the evaluation of the enterprise tax competitiveness using the hierarchy analysis method to identify the initial tax position of the business entity and the level of the “gap” between the actual state of its tax system and opportunities of the external tax environment. There have been proved a fragmentary character of developments in this area, which can be explained mainly by the novelty of the research object. The arguments in favor of feasibility of using the hierarchy analysis method to solve the problem of evaluating the level of the enterprise tax competitiveness have been presented. The generalized sequence for evaluating such competitiveness has been presented, which provides for the implementation of a number of stages: the formation of an expert group and organization of its work; statement of the problem and its structuring in the form of a hierarchy; diagnosis of the enterprise tax system according to specified parameters; identification of opportunities of external tax environment; comparison of the current enterprise tax system with opportunities of the external tax environment by building a matrix of pairwise comparisons; determination of eigenvectors and their normalized estimates for each pairwise comparison matrix in order to obtain priority vectors; evaluation of consistency of the pairwise comparison of matrices; building of the generalized priority vector; formation of conclusions and recommendations. The detailed description of each of these stages has been given. Application of the provisions on the evaluation of the enterprise tax competitiveness on the example of JSC “Drogobych truck crane plant” has been considered. It has been concluded that the level of the enterprise tax competitiveness is significantly lower than the opportunity of the external tax environment (generalized by 34.6%). This is despite the fact that in terms of some parameters of competitiveness the plant “underutilized” about 40% of the market opportunities. Article is written in Ukrainan
Frolov S. M., Savytska O. I. Research of Causal Relations between Components of Foreign Trade and Economic Performance of the Region, Country and World (p. 282  288)
Causal relations between components of the region foreign trade turnover and indicators, which characterize the economic situation of the region, country and the world, have been studied. 3 groups of indicators, which can have an impact on the region exportimport activity, were formed by the degree of the covered influence level: the level of region, country and world. All the selected indicators were tested for causality by Granger test. As a result of the study it has been found that the export of Sumy region is directly affected by the volume of industrial production, inflation rate in Ukraine and the world price for wheat. The export of services is affected by the volume of extended credits, income of the population per person, the world prices for corn and wheat. Causality has also been determined between the import of goods in Sumy region and indicators of extended credits, turnover of retail trade and wholesale trade of enterprises. As regards the import of services, the influence was recorded from the side of the official exchange rate of hryvnia to the US dollar and the price index of industrial producers. The prospect of further research in this direction is expansion of the set of indicators characterizing the economic activity of the region, country and the world. The further research can contribute to building up the exportimport potential of the region. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22016
Sergienko O. A., Golofaieva I. P., Tatar M. S. The Catastrophe Theory as a Conceptual and Methodological Basis for Assessing the Stability of SocioEconomic Systems (p. 184  193)
There has been proposed a conceptual approach to studying the instability of main indicators of socioeconomic development of Ukraine’s economy aimed at solving problems of assessment, analysis and forecasting the state of territorial systems and providing for the implementation of three major steps: assessment of the dynamics of socioeconomic indicators of territorial development and the extent of their relationship, building catastrophe models of dynamics of socioeconomic indicators of territorial development, analysis of instability of socioeconomic systems. A study of the development dynamics of Ukraine’s economy in terms of the most significant macroeconomic indicators characterizing the state of industrial production, construction, employment, and demographic processes have been carried out. There revealed the instability and nonlinearity of their relationship, occurrence of bifurcations and a high probability of catastrophes in the following research areas: dependence of the GDP on the volume of construction works, which makes it possible to determine the presence of the construction crisis in the economy; dependence of the GDP on the level of migration and natural increase in the population of Ukraine, which presents objective information about the demographic crisis in the country. The analytical results obtained can serve a basis for of the concept of regional policy transformation, implementation of investment and strategic programs aimed at stimulating investment of progressive structural changes in the regional and territorial perspective and crisis management. Article is written in English
Stryzhychenko K. A. Cyclicality of Economic Development of Ukraine in the Context of its Political and Legal Transformations (p. 194  199)
The cyclicality in the development of the Ukrainian economy during the years of its independence under conditions of its political and legal transformations has been studied. On the basis of the analysis of worldwide research the problem of influence of political transformations on the socioeconomic development of the state has been identified. There has been developed a methodological approach to studying the evolutionary development of the Ukrainian economy in the context of its European integration, which comprises three main blocks: Block 1 — studying the development of the legal field of Ukraine; Block 2 — studying the policy of development of Ukraine and orientation of its economic system; Block 3 — analyzing the evolutionary development of the Ukrainian economy and determining its cyclical nature. Within the developed approach there were used wavelet models, spectral analysis — Fourier expansion and Johanson test. The paper puts forward three hypotheses: hypothesis 1 — about the existence of shortterm 5year cycles of evolutionary development of the economy; hypothesis 2 — about the existence of a longterm cycle lasing 25 years and conditioned by political and legal processes in the society; hypothesis 3 — about the existence of cointegration relationships between the evolutionary development of the economy of Ukraine and the EU. On the basis of the modern political transformations the phases of development of the Ukrainian legal environment have been defined and comparison of these phases with the specifics of its economic development has been carried out. The analysis of the economic system of Ukraine and its policy made it possible to determine the vector of development of the Ukrainian economy. The approximating (trend) and detailing (cyclic) components of the economic development of Ukraine were determined with the help of wavelet expansion. Using Fourier analysis for the detailing components allowed to distinguish 5year cycles in the Ukrainian economy, which proved the first hypothesis. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №32016
Ivanchenko H. F., Dalayeen B. O. A. Synergistic Coherence of Bifurcation Evolutionary Processes of Mergers and Acquisitions of Enterprises (p. 293  299)
The aim of the article is developing information tools for the economic and mathematical modeling of the dynamics of evolutionary processes concerning trophic relationships of populations of enterprises, which allowed to conduct the phase and bifurcation analysis of possible dynamic regimes of the populations’ evolution, determine the mechanisms of influence of the external environment and the internal structure of the system, identify patterns and limits of stability of M&A processes. In the work the main provisions of the evolutionary concept concerning development of the population of enterprises as an economic system are analyzed, the provisions of the evolutionary concept of population systems’ development are considered, the basis of evolutionary modeling methods allowing to analyze the functioning of populations of enterprises in terms of individual strategies of each enterprise’s behavior is studied. The basic principles of synergy of the life cycle evolution for populations of enterprises are determined. An evolutionary approach to the evaluation of a synergistic effect of M & A is proposed. The evolutionary modeling of the scenario for selforganization of populations of dairy industry enterprises through a combination of statistical and expert data is applied. There also created a model of the population of firms reflecting behavioral and resource and technological characteristics of the studied in the work real population of industrial enterprises, which form the input flows of matter, energy and information to the dairy industry, which allows to combine the reflection of main possible options in terms of the external conditions of the population functioning and its internal structure. Article is written in Ukrainan
Pilko A. D., Kis V. V. Statement and Solution of the Problem of Evaluating and Analyzing the Investment Component of the Region’s Development Security (p. 300  306)
The aim of the article is to highlight the results of the analysis of existing approaches to evaluating and analyzing the investment component of development security of the region in the context of its territorial systems. The author’s own methodological recommendations on conducting the evaluation and analysis of the investment security of the region with the identification of perspective directions in their development have been formulated. The author’s scientific and methodological approach to analyzing the investment climate and investment security of the region in the context of its territorial systems and economic activities has been developed. The factors that determine the efficiency of using the investment climate of the region’s territorial systems as well as the relationship between the indicators of investment activity and parameters of the socioeconomic development of the region have been identified. The expediency of applying the multivariate statistical analysis and discriminant analysis methods in the process of solving the problem of evaluating and analyzing investment safety of the region has been justified. Article is written in Ukrainan
Pilko A. D., Savchuk N. V. Determining the Threshold Levels of Economic Security of the Region’s Territorial Systems on the Basis of Models of Discriminant Analysis and Euclidean Distance (p. 307  313)
The aim of the article is to highlight the results of the analysis of existing approaches to statement and solution of problems of evaluating the economic security level of the region in the context of its territorial systems, and develop the author’s own scientific and methodical approach to evaluating the economic security level of the region’s territorial systems and modeling its threshold values on the basis of discriminant analysis and Euclidean distance. In view of the available statistical information, taking into account the results of our own previous studies of the problematic of economic security management, there calculated the integral index of economic security for territorial systems of the region, as well as the index of social tension in the territorial systems of the region, which became the basis for the development of discriminant models of determining security threshold levels. The analysis of the results obtained after using the discriminant models as well as models developed on the basis of the analysis of the weighted Euclidean distance has shown that they are comparable and complementary in their nature. In other words, the proposed methodologies can be successfully used in the practice of formulating strategies and target programs of regional development. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sherstennykov Y. V., Kasian S. Y. The Modeling of Logistics and Coordination of the Rate of Commodities Production with the Rate of their Disposal (p. 314  320)
The economic objective of the modern hightech enterprise is the optimal expansion of its own market niche and bringing the production capacities in accordance with the current demand for the products. An important role in this respect is played by issues of optimal organization of the enterprise logistics, marketing analysis of the current demand and effective advertising campaign aimed at maximal use of the available production capacity and creation of proper conditions for developing, in particular for increasing the production capacities. The purpose of the article is the elaboration of economic and mathematical models of enterprise production activity taking into account the logistics and market demand; the use of the elaborated model to harmonize the rate of production of everyday commodities with the rate of their disposal. Two variants of the enterprise logistics schemes are analyzed. The influence of the advertising company on expanding the enterprise market niche is studied. A model that allows conducting a detailed study of the influence of market conditions on the pace of sales has been developed. It is appropriate to apply the model for the integrated coordination of the production rate of commodities of everyday demand with the dynamics of flows of commodities and services disposal. Article is written in Russian
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42016
Vitlinskyy V. V., Skitsko V. I. Conceptual Aspects in the Modeling of Logistical Risk of the Networked Information Economy with the Use of Tools of Natural Computing (p. 231  237)
Information and communication tools and technologies are rapidly changing daily lives of people and business processes in economic activity primarily in the field of logistics. In particular, the innovative nature of these transformations leads to the emergence of new logistical risks, changing the essence of the existing ones, which needs to be taken into account in the management of logistics systems at various levels. Besides, the problem of Big Data has become increasingly urgent, which, on the one hand, can improve the validity of making managerial decisions, on the other hand — they (Big Data) require modern tools for their production, processing and analysis. As such tools there can be used methods and models of natural computing. In the paper the basics of ant and bee algorithms, the particle swarm method, artificial immune systems are summarized; the possibilities of their application in the modeling of various types of logistical risk are demonstrated, the formalization of the problem of risk modeling with the use of an artificial immune system being given as a conditional example. Article is written in Ukrainan
Dilenko V. O., Gulyaeva N. A. Some Approaches to the Accounting and Analysis of the Impact of Scientific and Technological Progress in the HarrodDomar Economic Growth Model (p. 238  243)
The paper presents methods for the accounting of autonomous and induced scientific and technological progress in the HarrodDomar model of economic dynamics that imply determining the incremental capital/output ratio of the model in the form of special functions of time. As part of the received version of the HarrodDomar model, on the basis of conditional data there conducted a numerical study of some aspects of the impact of parameters of scientific and technological progress and the initial state of the economy being modeled on peculiarities of corresponding trajectories of its dynamics. A simple economic and mathematical problem of determining an optimal value of investments in the implementation of the induced STP is formulated, and content interpretation of the obtained solution is carried out. Possible directions of development of the obtained results may be associated with the application of the proposed modification of the HarrodDomar model to build and analyze mathematical models of optimal economic growth in view of the induced STP, as well as with the prospective use of these results to improve dynamic models of the Leontief type in terms of considering innovation processes (scientific and technical progress of various kinds). Article is written in Russian
Dmytryshyn L. I., Brynzei B. S. Spatial and Structural Analysis of Efficiency of Agriculture Production in Regions of Ukraine (p. 244  253)
The aim of the article is carrying out spatial and structural analysis of efficiency of agricultural production in regions of Ukraine. A technique for analyzing the use of resources on the basis of elasticity coefficients is proposed. To improve the efficiency of agricultural production it is important to know what kind of resources – material, labor, environmental or organizational and technical – is used less efficiently in order to ascertain the reasons for the further decrease in the production efficiency in general. To compare the performance of individual components of efficiency, it is proposed to use not usual parameters of the regression equation obtained for absolute values of the indicators, but the elasticity coefficients, which relate the change of factorsindicators and the performance indicator as a percentage of their average values. Thus the sensitivity of the performance indicator to indicatorsfactors is estimated. Taking into account the features of building the model of efficiency components, their made an assumption that the function of dependence of overall efficiency of agricultural production from its components is a linear one. The analysis of elasticity coefficients of the overall efficiency by its components showed a low level of their influence on the overall efficiency of agricultural production in regions. To understand this situation, the influence of the indicators on each component of efficiency is studied. With this purpose a complex of models of efficiency components is built for each region of Ukraine. The conducted through the use of elastic coefficients spatial and structural analysis of efficiency showed that each region has its own peculiarities in the development of agriculture, and, consequently, its determinants of influence on its efficiency. Article is written in Ukrainan
Kotsyuba O. S. Rational Choice of the Investment Project Using Interval Estimates of the Initial Parameters (p. 254  260)
The article is dedicated to the development of instruments to support decisionmaking on the problem of choosing the best investment project in a situation when initial quantitative parameters of the considered investment alternatives are described by interval estimates. In terms of managing the risk caused by interval uncertainty of the initial data, the study is limited to the component (aspect) of risk measure as a degree of possibility of discrepancy between the resulting economic indicator (criterion) and its normative level (the norm). An important hypothesis used as a basis for the proposed in the work formalization of the problem under consideration is the presence – for some or all of the projects from which the choice is made – of risk of poor rate of return in terms of net present (current) value. Based upon relevant developments within the framework of the fuzzyset methodology and interval analysis, there formulated a model for choosing an optimal investment project from the set of alternative options for the interval formulation of the problem. In this case it is assumed that indicators of economic attractiveness (performance) of the compared directions of real investment are described either by interval estimates or possibility distribution functions. With the help of the estimated conditional example there implemented an approbation of the proposed model, which demonstrated its practical viability. Article is written in Ukrainan
Matyushenko I. Y. Scenarios for Development of Scientific and Innovative Potential of Ukraine under Conditions of a New Industrial Revolution and Association with the EU (p. 261  272)
The article presents the results of the scenario simulation of scientific and innovative development of Ukraine to determine the appropriate method of its management under conditions of a new industrial revolution and association with the EU. It is shown that the best scenario that in the long run provides a significant improvement in the results of scientific and technological development is a scenario of increasing the level of R&D expenditures to the EU target figure amounting to 4% of GDP. But this scenario is unlikely. It is found that the optimal level of expenditures can be considered as 2.5% of GDP, which can be achieved in the medium term; in this case raising the level of expenditures to 1.72% of GDP gives certain results but does not produce sufficient resources for a longterm development. It is proved that in order to achieve significant results in scientific and technological development, the increase in expenditures on R&D should be accompanied by forming clusters, increasing the level of protection of investors, providing development of hightech industries and employment in this sphere, as well as facilitating the access to ICTs. It is found that a prerequisite for an effective scientific and technological development is stimulation of the population interest in obtaining highquality professional education, including through the promotion by employers. Article is written in Ukrainan
Skrypnyk A. V., Oborska I. S. Systemic and NonSystemic Corruption in Education: the Game Model (p. 273  278)
The aim of the article is to analyze the existing practices of corruption in higher education and their impact on its quality index as well as develop recommendations on their overcoming. Game methods to analyze the corrupt interaction in the process of getting education are proposed. There identified two categories of lecturers taking bribes: professional bribetakers and amateurs. It is emphasized that the existence of professionals is only possible under conditions of systemic corruption when part of the risk is passed on to the university administration. The activity of amateurs is analyzed using gaming technologies. The payoff matrices of the student and the teacher are built, the latter includes the likelihood of detection and possible punishment for corruption. It is shown that under current conditions there is saddle point when both the student and the teacher use illegal strategies. The transition to a mixed strategy is possible only in case of a significant increase in the probability of detecting acts of corruption on the part of the teacher or the increase of the size of punishment for corruption. Significant improvements are possible in the case when the population will change views on the effectiveness of knowledge as a source of human capital. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12017
Kozyk V. V., Seliuchenko N. Y., Masiuk V. M. Development of a Model for Quantitative Assessment of Risks and Identification of Threats in AntiCrisis Management of a MachineBuilding Enterprise (p. 404  412)
The aim of the article is to develop a model for quantitative assessment of risks in anticrisis management of a machinebuilding enterprise. The quantitative assessment will allow to identify among the risks the threats that can be considered as catastrophic risks. To assess the integral risk of anticrisis management of the enterprise, there used a process approach distinguishing the process of anticrisis management activity and the process of implementation of the anticrisis program. Within the framework of the process the types of activity are singled out, for each of them risks are identified with revealing their reasons. There built a fuzzy hierarchical model comprising the following elements: terminal nodes — indicators (factors) of risks; nonterminal nodes — separate risks that are characteristic for the processes and risks of each process as a whole; root of the tree — the integral risk of anticrisis management. The expediency of building a hierarchical fuzzy model, within which conclusions are formed for intermediate variables, is substantiated. Based on the own research and taking into account the opinion of experts, the parameters of the trapezoidal membership functions for assessing indicators and risks are determined. Fuzzy bases of knowledge about the correlation are formed using the Mamdani algorithm. The adequacy of the model is estimated on the basis of the learning sample. The built fuzzy model makes it possible to obtain risk assessment based on the set values of the indicators, thus providing an analysis of the sensitivity of risks to various factors. It is easily adjusted to other conditions and types of economic activity of the enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainan
Kotsyuba O. S. Estimation of the Net Present Value of the Investment Project in the Situation of Fuzzy Initial Data (p. 413  420)
The article investigates the problem of estimating the net present value of the investment project using a methodology based on the theory of fuzzy sets in the situation when the initial data are described by fuzzy estimates. In the general case the fuzzymultiple estimation of the specified indicator at a discreteinterval representation of the initial parameters is reduced to a set of homogeneous optimization problems. Often, depending on the characteristics of fuzzy estimates of cash flows of the investment project under consideration, the solutions to these problems can be found directly on the basis of relevant analytical expressions, while other problems require using special optimization methods. In the work there made an attempt to develop the analytical component of the fuzzymultiple modeling of the net present value indicator. First, we examined the general search and optimization approach, which allows providing a predetermined degree of accuracy, as well as the method for approximate determination of the fuzzy estimate of the net present value on the basis of analytical relationships developed by СhuiYu Chiu and Chan S. Park. After that, the situation was analyzed, and the corresponding calculation model was proposed, when fuzzy estimates of the cash flows of the investment project can be interpreted from the perspective of the concept of the moneygenerating operation formulated by O. B. Lozhkin. Among other things, it allowed to develop a general scheme for determining the fuzzy estimate of the net present value, supplementing it with the situation of this concept. As the main direction of the further development of the problems discussed in the publication there determined the formation of a holistic methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of real investments, which would cover different in their nature and structural characteristics types of uncertainty from unified theoretical positions. Article is written in Ukrainan
Malуarets L. M., Minenkova O. V. Solving the Problems of Multicriteriality in Assessing the Enterprise Activity on the Basis of Multicriteria Optimization Methods (p. 421  427)
The expediency of using multicriteria optimization methods for solving multicriteria problems in evaluation of the enterprise activity is substantiated. The analysis of modern methods of multicriteria optimization is carried out. Various classification characteristics of multicore optimization problems are considered. There carried out a detailed analysis of such methods of multicriteria optimization as without participation of decisionmakers; based on the scalar convolution of the criteria into one; using a criterion constraint; method of the main criterion; successive concessions method; targeted programming; method where the principle of guaranteed result is applied; the method of Steuer and Choo; STEM; using fuzzy logic; FFANN; methods that use genetic algorithms for simulation models. The advantages and disadvantages of the considered methods of solving the problems of multicriteria evaluation of the enterprise activity based on the balanced system of indicators are singled out. The existence of a large set of methods for solving MOP in modeling a balanced system of indicators provides ample opportunities for managing the enterprise activity. The article proposes a metamodel of multicriteria optimization of a balanced system of indicators for the enterprise activity evaluation. Article is written in Ukrainan
Nykolyuk O. M., Timonin Y. O., Vasko S. M. The Methodology for Assessing the Efficiency of the Functioning of the Institutional Environment of Agricultural Enterprises (p. 428  434)
The classification of functions of the elements of the institutional environment of agricultural enterprises is developed depending on the sphere of their functioning. There identified forms of manifestation of insufficient efficiency of the institutional environment regarding small, medium and large commodity producers, as well as agricultural enterprises that are part of the structure of agroholdings. The methodology for assessing functional efficiency of the elements of the institutional environment of agribusiness entities on the basis of applying the provisions of the fuzzy logic theory on the basis of extension of the MatLab Fuzzy Logic Toolbox is proposed. The level of implementing by the elements of the institutional environment of agricultural enterprises’ competitiveness the functions of lawmaking, support of entrepreneurship, market regulation, contracting, information support, state support, innovation and technology transfer, and lending is determined. Article is written in Ukrainan
Pilko A. D., Potiatynnyk B. B. The Models for Analysis of Interrelations between the Indicators of Investment Activity and the System of Indicators of Efficiency of Using the Potential of the Regional Meat and Meat Products Market (p. 435  440)
The aim of the publication is to provide the results of the analysis of existing approaches to the formulation and solution of the problem of evaluating the level of efficiency of using investment, production and consumption components of the potential of the regional market for meat and meat products in the context of its territorial systems as well as development of an own scientific and methodological approach to evaluating and analyzing the linkages between the effectiveness of using the components of the regional market for this food type and its determining factors, based on the development and use of possibilities of applied econometric models. With regard to the available statistical base, taking into account the results of studying management of the food and investment components of economic security, namely the works aimed at determining the indicators of investment activity, investment attractiveness and efficiency of using the investment climate of the territorial systems of the region, the investment attractiveness of economic activities, and the consumer and production potentials of the regional market for meat and meat products, there carried out an appropriate analysis of the effectiveness of the factors facilitating the food component of regional development security based on the evaluation of the parameters of the simulative econometric models. Article is written in Ukrainan
Skitsko V. I. Artificial Immune Systems as a Modern Tool for Solving MultiPurpose Optimization Tasks in the Field of Logistics (p. 441  446)
The article investigates various aspects of the functioning of artificial immune systems and their using to solve different tasks. The analysis of the studied literature showed that nowadays there exist combinations of artificial immune systems, in particular with genetic algorithms, the particle swarm optimization method, artificial neural networks, etc., to solve different tasks. However, the solving of economic tasks is paid little attention. The article presents the basic terminology of artificial immune systems; the steps of the clonal selection algorithm are described, as well as a brief description of the negative selection algorithm, the immune network algorithm and the dendritic algorithm is given; conceptual aspects of the use of an artificial immune system for solving multipurpose optimization problems are formulated, and an example of solving a problem in the field of logistics is described. Artificial immune systems as a means of solving various weakly structured, multicriteria and multipurpose economic tasks, in particular in the sphere of logistics, are a promising tool that requires further research. Therefore, it is advisable in the future to focus on the use of various existing immune algorithms for solving various economic problems. Article is written in Russian
Fedorenko I. A., Mordovtsev O. S., Miasnykov V. O. Forecasting Innovation Risks of MachineBuilding Enterprises with the Use of Fuzzy Sets (p. 447  456)
The aim of the article is to solve an actual problem of assessing and forecasting the risks of innovation activity of an enterprise under uncertainty. Numerous studies dedicated to this problem suggest various qualitative and quantitative methods, however, most papers present no results of their practical application, which calls the usefulness of their use into question. With the help of the scientific and methodological approach based on the theory of fuzzy sets, the model of predicting the expected risk using fuzzy triangular numbers is proposed. All possible cases of interaction of the expected value of the studied indicator and the indicator characterizing its boundary conditions are investigated. With the help of the received formulas, the total risk of investing in an innovation project is determined depending on the boundary conditions. The index of profitability of investments is chosen as the indicator to be studied. The model allows potential investors and developers to select the optimal values of the project parameters provided that the risk is minimized. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sherstennykov Y. V. A Simulation Model of the Logistics System of a Small Enterprise (p. 457  466)
An important trend in the theoretical study of the current activity and strategic prospects of small enterprises is the development of dynamic models of their functioning under the contemporary socioeconomic conditions. The basis for building a simulation model of the logistic system of a small enterprise is the approach of J. Forrester developed by the author on the basis of the methods elaborated within the methodological approach to modeling the processes of development of the structure and properties of a small enterprise by building dynamic models. In the article a simulation model of the logistic system of a small enterprise has been elaborated, and on its basis there have been developed and substantiated the following elements of the logistics system of a small enterprise: a model of shipment management in a sales company; a model of management of a sales company; a production management scheme. The numerical calculations show that the total annual net profit increases if the demand increases at the beginning of the year. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22017
Burtnyak I. V., Malytska H. P. Calculating the Price for Derivative Financial Assets of Bessel Processes Using the SturmLiouville Theory (p. 310  316)
In the paper we apply the spectral theory to find the price for derivatives of financial assets assuming that the processes described are Markov processes and such that can be considered in the Hilbert space L^2 using the SturmLiouville theory. Bessel diffusion processes are used in studying Asian options. We consider the financial flows generated by the Bessel diffusions by expressing them in terms of the system of Bessel functions of the first kind, provided that they take into account the linear combination of the flow and its spatial derivative. Such expression enables calculating the size of the market portfolio and provides a measure of the amount of internal volatility in the market at any given moment, allows investigating the dynamics of the equity market. The expansion of the Green function in terms of the system of Bessel functions is expressed by an analytic formula that is convenient in calculating the volume of financial flows. All assumptions are natural, result in analytic formulas that are consistent with the empirical data and, when applied in practice, adequately reflect the processes in equity markets. Article is written in English
Kotsyuba O. S. The Fuzzy Adaptation of Probabilistic Risk Indicators (p. 317  323)
The aim of the article is to develop fuzzy tools for measuring risk based on adaptation of corresponding indicators developed within the methodology of the probability theory. The study is limited to the situations where the economic indicator, which performs the function of a decision criterion and is an object of the analysis of the degree of risk, is modeled by a fuzzy number, and the latter is to be understood as a fuzzy value with a normal and convex membership function. Also in this case there applied the interval method, which describes fuzzy estimation of the criterion index by membership degrees. Within the framework of implementing the goal set, there consistently considered a number of probabilistic indicators of risk degree: mean absolute deviation, semideviation, coefficient of unfavorable deviations, ratio of expected losses (losses). For the latter, a modified version is proposed, in which the expected favorable and unfavorable deviations of the values of the criterion index are estimated taking into account the probability of their occurrence due to which it was called the weighted expected loss ratio. For the initial and modified version of the expected loss ratio, their fuzzy adaptations are formulated. According to the known property of the semideviation index, in the situation of probabilistic uncertainty the values of the coefficient of unfavorable deviations and the weighted expected loss ratio coincide. If the analyzed criterion index is described by a fuzzy estimate, the use of fuzzy adaptations of these coefficients in the general case leads to different results. It is also revealed that the fuzzy adaptation of the coefficient of unfavorable deviations coincides with the indicator of the degree of risk on the basis of a combined (hybrid) version of the possibility measure. Article is written in Ukrainan
Pilko A. D., Harda T. P. The Modeling of the Processes of Assessment and Analysis of the Level of SocioEcologicalEconomic Development of a Region (p. 324  330)
There presented results of the research of existing scientific and methodological, and theoretical approaches to management of the socioecologicaleconomic development of a region with subsequent definition of priorities of the regional policy taking into account the concepts of security and development. Based on the study of literature sources and the analysis of the available statistical base, the problem of assessing the level of social, economic, ecological development, the level of sustainable development and the degree of harmonization of sustainable development of territorial systems of a region is formulated, and a possible method of its solution is suggested. The direction and nature of the causeeffect relationships between social tension and the levels of economic, environmental, social development and the level of sustainable development of a region are determined. There proposed a scheme to build models for assessing the effectiveness of levers for managing social, economic and environmental processes at the level of territorial systems in a region, taking into account the level of social tension and indicators of the investment component of development. Article is written in Ukrainan
Rayevnyeva O. V., Prokopovych S. V. SelfEvaluation of the Scientific Activity of a Higher Educational Institution (p. 331  339)
The article is dedicated to the problem of selfevaluation of the scientific activity of a higher educational institution (HEI) as a component of its overall ranking evaluation. On the basis of a potentially effective approach to studying this problem, there proposed a system of indicators for evaluating the scientific activity of a HEI, which makes it possible to determine the potential of its scientific activity in terms of staff and resource provision, and the efficiency — in terms of quality of the training of scientific staff (students, graduate students, young scientists, etc.), financial results of scientific activity and publication activity. To obtain an integral ranking score of the scientific activity of a HEI, the use of the taxonomic method is justified, the necessity of applying weight coefficients of the significance of primary indicators is determined. The approbation of the approach was carried out on the basis of the data of S. Kuznets KhNEU for the period of 20132016, which made it possible to obtain not only point estimates of the integral indicator of the scientific activity of an HEI but also determine the trends in its changes and identify their reasons. The proposed approach to the selfevaluation of the scientific activity of a HEI allows its administration to develop effective management solutions to increase the level of scientific activity of its scientific and pedagogical, and scientific staff, which will provide additional competitive advantages in the national and world educational space. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42017
Bril M. S., Pyvavar I. V. Management of Housing and Public Services of a City: the System and Simulation Approach (p. 405  415)
The article is dedicated to the development of models for management of housing and communal services of a city on the basis of the system approach and simulation modeling. A review of the existing models of urban systems is carried out, their advantages and disadvantages are shown. With the use of the methods of simulation and scenario modeling, a simulation model for management of housing and communal services of a city has been developed, which makes it possible to predict the dynamics of the main socioeconomic indicators of development of a city. On the basis of the model, the forecast indicators were simulated according to various scenarios for distributing financial resources for the renovation and maintenance of housing facilities of a city. The main criterion for effectiveness of the scenarios is the level of housing provision for the population. The models built can be used for making managerial decisions by local government authorities as well as in elaborating programs for the urban social and economic development. Article is written in Ukrainan
Kotsyuba O. S. Analytical Support for Selecting the Best Investment Project in the Presence of Fuzzy Data (p. 416  423)
The article is dedicated to the problem of optimal choice in the field of real investments in case of fuzzy estimates of financial and economic parameters. The general methodological basis of the research is an integrated approach to solving decisionmaking problems under conditions of uncertainty, conflict, and risk generated by them, based on the game theory, proposed by R. I. Trukhayev. In recent decades, it has been actively developed in papers by the followers of the scientific school of riskology under the leadership of V. V. Vitlinsky. One of the systemforming components of the above integration and game methodology is the classifier of information situations (there singled out seven of them). In this case, the description of possible states of the economic environment by a fuzzy set (a subset) corresponds to the seventh information situation. An attempt was made to develop a methodical apparatus for the task of selecting the best investment project from a variety of alternative projects in the presence of fuzzy data. As a result, a model based on the use of convolutions of local criteria is formulated. In accordance with the accepted methodological guidelines, the structure of the generalized (integral) indicator of the economic attractiveness (efficiency) of real investment provides for three hierarchical levels: 1) the level of detailed criteria in terms of partial criteria (financial effect, profitability, payback period), 2) the level of partial criteria, 3) the level presenting the very generalized indicator. In the basic version of the proposed model, among the possible techniques (methods) for aggregating indicators detailing the aspects of fuzzy estimates of partial criteria, the preference is given to the method by which they are joined by a combined, additive and multiplicative convolution. Article is written in Ukrainan
Rayevnyeva O. V., Stryzhychenko K. A. Autonomy of the European Higher Education System: Characteristic Features of the Clusters (p. 424  429)
The aim of this study is the formation of clusters in terms of autonomy with the identification of their representatives and the formation of the main indicators (options) of development. The article singles out five homogeneous groups in terms of development of autonomy of the higher education system, and analyzes their main characteristics. To study the specific features of each group, representative countries are identified for each of them, including the higher education systems of Norway, Italy, Finland, Poland and France. Based on the analysis of the representatives, the dominants in the development of each autonomy dimension are defined. A comparative analysis of the autonomy of the system of higher education of the representative countries was carried out, which showed that autonomy of the higher education system is a multidimensional phenomenon, and one cannot say that only autonomy can provide advantages in the competitive struggle in the market of educational services. Article is written in English
Skitsko V. I. Assessment of Logistics Risk using Collective Artificial Intelligence (p. 430  436)
In substantiating management decisions in logistics, there can be used various economic and mathematical methods and models for quantitative risk assessment constructed with the help of a variety of instruments. Due to the increase in the processing power of computer equipment, economic and mathematical models become more complex, more precise, and the range of modeling tools expands. The current promising area in mathematical modeling is collective artificial intelligence, with the help of which it is possible to effectively solve weakly structured, multicriteria, multipurpose, complex economic problems. The mathematical model of the bat algorithm, the basic rules and steps of its functioning are presented, the application of the bat algorithm to solve the multiindex transport problem in the formulation of which the logistics risk is taken into account is shown, and the way to assess the logistics risk using the results of the functioning of the bat algorithm is shown. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12018
Vitlinskyy V. V., Katunina O. S. Methodological Aspects of Modeling Development and Viability of Systems and Counterparties in the Digital Economy (p. 333  341)
The aim of the article is to study and generalize methodological approaches to modeling economic development and viability of economic systems with consideration for risk, changing their goals, status, and behavior in the digital economy. The definition of categories of economic development and viability is offered, the directions of their research by means of mathematical modeling are grounded. The system of characteristics and markers of the external economic environment under conditions of digitalization of economic activity is analyzed. The theoretical foundations and methodology for mathematical modeling of development of economic systems as well as ensuring their viability and security under conditions of introducing infrastructure of information society and digital economy on the principles of the information and knowledge approach are considered. It is proved that in an information society, predictive model technologies are a growing safety resource. There studied prerequisites for replacing the traditional integration concept of evaluation, analysis, modeling, management, and administration of economic development based on a threatoriented approach to the definition of security protectors, information, and knowledge. There proposed a concept of creating a database of models for examining trends and patterns of economic development, which, unlike traditional trend models of dynamics, identifies and iteratively conceptualizes processes based on a set of knowledgeable predictors based on the use of data mining and machine learning tools, including indepth training. Article is written in Ukrainan
Krutova A. S., Serdyukov K. H. Assessing Attractiveness of Packages of Profit Participation Rights at Transforming the Parameters for Distribution of Packages of Profit Participation Rights in a Business Entity (p. 342  350)
The peculiarity of the corporate form of business management is the presence of several owners of packages of profit participation rights, each of which has its own vision of the prospects and guidelines for the development of the business entity. Orientation to this situation made it possible to put forward a hypothesis about the dependence of attractiveness of a package of profit participation rights on the parameters for distributing corporate control in an business entity. Within the framework of this hypothesis, there proposed two sets of indicators that characterize, first, the efficiency of business activity and, secondly, the level of maturity of the mechanism for implementing corporate control. In this case, the independence of the first group of indicators from the specifics of the implementation of corporate control is expected. At the same time, it is proposed to differentiate the assessment process for the second group of indicators depending on the presence or absence of transactions for the transformation of corporate control. The assessment is based on the theory of fuzzy sets and the formation of hierarchical inference using the FuzzyTech software environment. At the same time, it is suggested to form various sets of rules for strategic and portfolio investors. Article is written in Ukrainan
Potrashkova L. V. Assessment of Enterprise Potential with the Help of Simulation Modeling (p. 351  357)
The object of the study is the process of assessing enterprise potential, which refers to the ability of an enterprise to carry out its activities. The paper presents a general conceptual model of enterprise potential. There built a model for calculating a resultant assessment of enterprise strategic potential using the simulation approach which allows taking into account the dynamics of enterprise resources and using several criteria for evaluating performance of an enterprise.Modifications of the built model, which make it possible to simplify the procedure for performing simulation experiments (including using analytical optimization models as components of the simulation model), are determined. The work was carried out within the framework of a study aimed at the formation and practical implementation of a system of models for assessing potential of a socially responsible enterprise. Article is written in Ukrainan
Skrypnyk A. V., Voronenko I. V., Namiasenko Y. O. Econometric Models of Dependencies of the Tariffs in the Market for Information and Communication Services (p. 358  367)
The market for information and communication services in Ukraine is analyzed based on statistical data. Its main segments by revenue, namely mobile communications and Internet services, are identified. The main regularities of setting tariffs for these services in countries of the world are determined, depending on the welfare of the population, the democracy index, the index of information and communication technologies, as well as the corruption perception index. Scatter diagrams of dependence of the tariffs on mobile communications and the Internet on the GDP per capita are built. The parameters of singlefactor and multifactorial models of influence of the GDP per capita, the index of democracy, and the index of information and communication technologies on tariffs for mobile communications and the Internet by regions of the world are investigated. The conclusion is drawn that the tariff policy of the operators of Ukraine is aimed at reaching broad layers of the population, and even after taking into account the effect of the level of the country’s economic development, tariffs remain too low. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sokolovska Z. M. The Modeling of Enterprise Market Strategies under Uncertainty (p. 368  377)
The aim of the article is to consider the possibilities of applying a multimethod simulation paradigm in the modeling of enterprise market strategies (using the example of IT companies). By summarizing the works of a number of specialists, there identified the specific features of the functioning of IT companies in the market for information technologies and communications, as well as the problems of the formation and actualization of their strategies. The necessity of using special analysis and forecasting tools with ensuring anticipatory modeling and multivariate research of various scenarios for implementing market strategies of IT companies is emphasized. The correspondence to the given conditions of the method of simulation modeling is substantiated. A simulation model for the formation of a market strategy for an IT company, built using a multimethod simulation paradigm on the AnyLogic system platform, is proposed. System dynamics and agentbased approaches are used as the basic ones. The work of the model is illustrated by fragments of simulation experiments conducted based on the international IT company “NetCracker Technology”. The possibilities of parametrization of the experiments are demonstrated, directions for further improvement of the simulator model are indicated. Article is written in Ukrainan
Suratna Suratna Effect of Learning Effectiveness on Market Orientation, Innovation, and Performance of SMEs (p. 378  383)
Market uncertainty can be caused by a constantly changing consumer preference, and it is market uncertainty that drives companies to continue to innovate. Some research results indicate that learning effect the market orientation and innovations that occur within an organization. Nevertheless, research on influence of learning effectiveness on market orientation, innovation, and performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is still very minimal. Successful SMEs will contribute greatly to the development of the country by providing employment and increasing national income. Therefore, learning effectiveness and its impact on the market orientation, innovation, and performance of SMEs is of interest for researchers. This research explains the concept of training and its effect on market orientation, innovation, and performance of SMEs. In addition, the study proposes and tests effective training models and their impact on market orientation, innovation, and performance of SMEs. Article is written in English
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22018
Dilenko V. O., Osipov V. M. The Mathematical Modeling of Some Mechanisms for Integrating Economic Systems (p. 403  409)
The article substantiates the urgency, and outlines the main directions for solving the most important problems of uniting the territorial communities of Ukraine, which is one of the main elements of the decentralization reform implemented in the country. Within the scope of this topic, there formulated the simplest mathematical models of the processes of integrating economic systems, to conduct a theoretical study of possible mechanisms for integrating economic systems for the purpose of their rational choice. The constructed models present a definite development of wellknown mathematical models of economic dynamics and optimal economic growth for the case of the functioning of two economic subsystems that have some common mechanism of redistribution of the produced product between them. It should be noted that this mechanism can be set exogenously or determined as a result of solving the corresponding mathematical problem of optimal control. The described economic and mathematical tools make it possible to analyze, at a qualitative level, various scenarios for the development of an economic system at functioning of certain hypothetical mechanisms of its formation. A numerical and analytical study of the constructed models was carried out, which made it possible to identify possible negative moments in the evolution of the systems under consideration that are a consequence of their unification, for example, the unbalanced development of individual subsystems, the relay nature of the optimal mechanism for their unification, a dramatic change in the results of the unification of economic systems with a slight variation in the parameters of their functioning, etc. A promising direction for the development of the results obtained can be elaborating economic and mathematical methods to solve the problem of determining rational mechanisms for combining economic systems for some typical conditions of their functioning. Article is written in Russian
Zhehus O. V. Modeling the Demand for Educational Products of Higher Education Institutions in Ukraine (p. 410  417)
Higher education institutions switch to market methods and management models that provide for the reorientation of their activities to the needs of the market. It is found that the negative consequences of the demographic crisis, deterioration of the socioeconomic situation, and changing behavior of consumers in the market for higher education products led to a drop in demand for educational products. Insufficient attention from the management of higher education institutions to changing the situation on the market led to deterioration in indicators and results of their functioning. To adapt to new conditions on the market, universities need to intensify marketing activities, direct efforts to form and stimulate demand. It is noted that the adoption of marketing decisions should be based on data on future trends in the development of the situation on the market. The aim of the article is to justify the flow model for determining the annual potential capacity of the market for higher education products and its mediumterm forecasting in Ukraine. Taking into account the specificity of the market for higher education products, a method for designing flows of potential applicants is chosen to predict its capacity. Based on the analysis of the state and trends of the market, there identified flows that contribute to the formation of the demand for products of higher education institutions, and flows that lead to its decrease. Using statistical data and the results of content analysis of secondary information, an optimistic, normal, and pessimistic scenario is developed for changing the annual potential capacity of the market for higher education products. Based on the results of expert estimations, it is determined that the probability of a pessimistic scenario is higher. According to this scenario, in 20182020 a decrease in the potential capacity of the market for higher education products is expected, which is associated with the increase in the trends of student immigration, loss of prestige of and confidence in higher education, and the development of alternative forms of obtaining knowledge. Under conditions of a high probability of decreasing the potential capacity of the market for higher education products, higher education institutions need to ensure the conditions and opportunities for organizing and managing marketing activities. Article is written in Ukrainan
Poliakova O. Y., Bulkin S. M. The Model of Decision Support to Prevent the Transmission of a Financial Crisis to the Real Economy (p. 418  425)
The aim of the article is to form an integrated model to forecast, identify a financial crisis and minimize its spread to the real economy. The conceptual scheme reflecting the investigation of the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy is presented. It is based on the hypothesis that the development of a crisis in the financial sector of the economy precedes a crisis in the real economy, but it is possible to mitigate the consequences of the former and partially manage the crisis in the real economy by influencing the channels of its transmission at different stages of penetration. It is proved that the most appropriate for forming an integrated model of the transmission of a financial crisis is the use of simulation models, since such models allow testing the possibility of preventing the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy. Building a plan of experiments for the simulation model is based on the GraecoLatin square methodology, which is due to the effectiveness of this tool in limiting the studied data ranges. In order to evaluate the results of the conducted experiments and choose an effective management model that will correspond to an optimal variant of crisis prevention, Harrington’s desirability function is chosen, which is based on the idea of converting the natural values of private responses into a dimensionless scale of desirability or preference. The function built is the basis for the formed approach to determining optimal and suboptimal solutions for minimizing the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy. As a result of the study, it was determined that only 20 % of the options (25 decisions) of possible management ones can have a positive result. The formed block of decision support models is an important component of the developed integrated model, which allows modeling the process of the transmission of a financial crisis from the burst of a bubble in the financial sector to the impact on certain parts of the real economy. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sergienko O. A., Gula A. S. Assessing the Effectiveness of the Crediting of the AgroIndustrial Complex, as the Determining Sector of International Trade, by Region (p. 426  439)
In the article, to assess the efficiency of the crediting of the agroindustrial complex (AIC), as the determining sector of international trade, by region, a methodological approach to assessing and analyzing the determination of levels of performance and crediting of AIC is proposed. Unlike the existing approaches, the one presented in the article is based on the results of cluster analysis methods and spatial multielement matrices of conformity of the investigated components (by level of performance of the AIC and level of crediting of the AIC), which is the basis for studying the effectiveness of the influence of crediting on its performance by the formed groups of regions with the help of econometric tools as well as for determining the features of the investigated processes in the regions and allows to assess the effectiveness of using credit resources when choosing levers of regulatory influence. The constructed models for assessing economic efficiency of the crediting of agribusinesses enables determining the impact of using credit resources aimed at increasing the effectiveness of their activities, as well as the problems of their crediting in the regional context. The models for assessing the impact of crediting volumes on the level of production and net profit make it possible to predict the effectiveness of raising funds and justify the development of the crediting of agribusinesses in regions of the country. It is proved that the strategic line for the development of the crediting of agricultural enterprises in regions according to the level of agricultural development is the transition from the predominantly basic support for the crediting of agribusinesses to the crediting and financing their specific projects, which will ensure the most effective activity at all management levels based on the determined areas of development of crediting with regard to the level of creditworthiness of agribusinesses. Article is written in Ukrainan
Shvets S. M. Public Investment and Growth: the VECM Results for Ukraine (p. 440  449)
The article examines public investment impact on the economic growth in Ukraine applying VECM instruments. The aim of the study is to reexamine the influence of public investment on GDP dynamics in Ukraine in the short and longrun using VAR modeling. There given characteristics of the crowdingin and crowdingout effects of public investment shock for developed and developing economies in the context of typical methods for studying the issue. The empirical review proves that public investment is a significant growth driver in the shortrun. The VECM results verified a positive impact of public investment with maximum GDP growth 0.8 percentage points in Ukraine detected at the end of the first year after the shock. There determined a persistent crowdingin effect starting from the second quarter of the carried out impulse response scenario estimation and corresponds to an increase in the private investment to GDP ratio by 0.4 percentage points. Based on the results of modeling the internal public debt shock, there proved the presence of the crowdingout effect, which becomes more noticeable in the first quarter resulting in a sharp decline in the private investment to GDP ratio by 0.5 percentage points. The actual phase of the crowdingout effect lasts during the period of one year and a half. Summing up the empirical results, the governing authority of Ukraine has to take into account crowdingin and crowdingout effects while setting up a proinvestment fiscal policy in the short and mediumrun. Article is written in English
Shirinyan L. V., Rohanova H. O., Shirinyan A. S. The Influence of Factors on Bitcoin Value Formation (p. 450  458)
The study is based on hypotheses about the influence of factors on bitcoin value formation. The aim of the article is the scientific inquiry and determination of factors affecting bitcoin value with a high level of correlation. The list of factors includes 33 world indicators, among which there are other cryptocurrencies, fiat money, world indices of stock markets, shares of powerful global companies, prices for energy and precious metals. As a result of the study, independent influential factors are selected and a correlationregression model of bitcoin value is built. The statistical significance of the factors included in the model and the correlationregression equation that allows simulating bitcoin value is substantiated. Practical approval of the proposed model using the actual data of the identified influence factors is carried out. Prospects for further research in this direction are based on applying trends as to independent factors that markedly affect the value of a bitcoin in order to model its future value. In addition to the factors identified, a significant influence on bitcoin value can be made by supply and demand, bitcoin scalability, interference of government regulatory institutions, the shadow money market, volume and nature of news in the crypto currency market. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №32018
Kotsyuba O. S. Estimation of Input Financial and Economic Parameters of an Investment Project Based on a Fuzzy Set Approach (p. 240  245)
The article considers the problem of estimating input financial and economic parameters of investment projects in the form of fuzzy quantities (numbers). The results of the study give grounds to state that the modern fuzzy set methodology comprises a sufficiently developed arsenal of methods for constructing the membership functions of fuzzy sets, some of which can be used for carrying out economic analysis and evaluating real investment. At the same time, the issue of estimating input financial and economic parameters of investment projects has its own peculiarities, thus when addressing it, the turning to general approaches should be complemented with elaborating and developing special methods. Such special methods, in particular, are the method based on quasistatistics and the method of reference points. The paper proposes an approach to finding fuzzy estimates of the input financial and economic parameters of real investments, which, in accordance with its logic, was called the method of reference intervals. The constructive principle of this method is to represent a soughtfor fuzzy estimate using the interval approximations of its core and carrier. The specified interval approximations, which are interpreted as reference intervals, are determined on the basis of the principles of the theory of rough sets. A promising direction of further scientific research on the issues touched upon in the publication is the development of a methodological apparatus for considering the combined uncertainty in the structure of input data when modeling economic efficiency of real investment. Article is written in English
Skitsko V. I., Voinikov M. Y. Solving a ThreeIndex Transportation Problem under Risk Conditions Using a Genetic Algorithm (p. 246  252)
The complication of economic relations, on the one hand, and the increase in processing power of computers, on the other hand, led to the development of economic and mathematical methods and models, the use of which in solving economic problems was previously limited. In particular, multiindex transportation problems are becoming popular as resource allocation problems that arise in manufacturing, supply chain management, information technology, distribution, etc. Multiindex transportation problems allow considering more parameters of real problems in comparison with twoindex transportation problems. But along with the increase in the number of indices of a transportation problem and its dimension, the time required to solve this problem also increases. This necessitates using adequate tools to address them. A genetic algorithm can be considered as one of such tools. It allows to simultaneously analyze several potential solutions to the problem at every step of its operation, which significantly reduces the time to search for the optimal or, in some sense, best solution. The article describes the steps of the genetic algorithm to solve a triplanar and triaxial transportation problem, upon the encoding is in real numbers; shows how risks can be considered; presents the steps of the procedure for “returning” a chromosome to the region of feasibility; describes the use of the elitism strategy in order to preserve the best chromosome in the genetic algorithm. In further studies, it is advisable to develop the procedure for “returning” a chromosome to the region of feasibility along with specifying the use of various genetic operators in the genetic algorithm to solve threeindex transportation problems in order to reduce the number of chromosomes that fall beyond the region of feasibility, which, in turn, should significantly reduce the time of performing the genetic algorithm as a whole. In addition, the aspects of assessing risk in multiindex transportation problems also need further research. Article is written in Ukrainan
Khazan P. V. The Integral Indicator for Assessing the Development of Renewable Energy Sources (p. 253  259)
To assess the development of renewable energy sources, the structuring of indicators in three groups is performed, namely: economic, environmental, and social ones. The method to calculate the assessment of the development of renewable energy sources in the world based on an integral indicator is substantiated. It is determined that the integral indicator for assessing the development of renewable energy sources reflects the impact of the group indicators. It also determines functional relationships between individual indicators. A method for calculating the corresponding coefficients of influence on the generalizing indicator of the development of renewable energy sources is proposed, and its graphic interpretation is provided. In accordance with the methodology of Harrington, Derringer and Suich, a relationship was established between the quantitative values of the scale of desirability and the perception of the state of development of renewable energy sources. Based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, IRENA, IEA and REN21 for the period 2006–2016, a comprehensive assessment of the development of renewable energy sources in Ukraine is carried out using the proposed methodology. The results of the calculations indicate a positive trend in the changes of the synthesis indicator and the stable development of renewable energy sources in the country. Article is written in Ukrainan
Yarmolenko V. О., Burennikova N. V. The Practice of Measuring the Efficiency Coefficient of the Process of System Operation Based on Indicators of Efficiency Components (p. 260  266)
In scientific works based on the analysis of systems with the help of the socalled energy approach, energy conversion efficiency is characterized by the efficiency coefficient of the system. The aim of the article is to examine the developed by the authors methodology for measuring efficiency of the process of system operation based on the author’s indicators of components of process efficiency. It is argued that when analyzing the process of system operation (as a flow of certain subprocesses), one can speak about the impact of its energy, through the objects of influence, on the final result, and therefore the efficiency coefficient of the process can be measured based on the final result of the energy impact — products of the operation process. Approaches to the measurement of these coefficients by means of the author’s indicators of efficiency components of subprocesses of the system operation, based on the author’s models, are proposed. Using the examples of economic and pedagogical systems, the possibility of practical implementation of the developed by the authors methodology for measuring the efficiency coefficient of the processes of system operation is demonstrated, which presents the scientific novelty of the proposed research results. There formed a thought: the ranking scores of relevant indicators contribute to realizing the comparative characteristics of changes in each of the objects involved in the process in spacetime arrangement. Based on the example of the economic process it is found that the ranking score of the efficiency coefficient of the process coincides with the ranking score of its effectiveness, but it does not always coincide with the ranking score of the gross product and the efficiency of the process. With the help of mathematical dependencies, there explained the facts of the emerging of such cases: namely, it is proved that the efficiency coefficient of the process and its effectiveness are equivalent in terms of process characteristics. The proposed methodology expands the existing aspects in the context of the analysis of concepts and processes based on the energy approach. Article is written in Ukrainan
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42018
Drogobytskyi I. M. Modeling of Social and Cultural Systems (p. 344  350)
The euphoria resulting from the effectiveness of using the methodology of system modeling of natural processes for the analysis and design of technical systems has inspired scientists to its largescale application in the study of economic, sociological, political, and other systems in which the main role belongs to man. Unfortunately, many years of hard work have not yet yielded tangible results. It turned out that these systems (they belong to the class of sociocultural) are fundamentally different from natural and artificial systems, and methods used for investigating the latter ones are not always suitable for studying the considered systems. There required a special methodology and apparatus of system modeling which would focus on the study of sociocultural systems at the level of its basic provisions. To this end, the article proposes an original graph for modeling the dynamics of sociocultural systems and analyzes the prospects of its use in the study, interpretation of the current state of such systems and prediction of their future. There stated the fractalіty of sociocultural, and living systems, based on which the expediency of initiating a new direction of scientific research – genetics of sociocultural systems – is justified. Article is written in Ukrainan
Klebanova T. S., Balykov O. H. A General System for Optimizing Strategic Business Processes of an IT Services Company (p. 351  359)
The article proposes a methodology to improve the general system for optimizing strategic business processes (BPs) of an IT services company based on modern economic and mathematical assessment and analysis tools. A common stepbystep algorithm for building and analyzing models for optimizing BPs of an IT company is presented. There built a unified structural and logical system for optimizing BPs of an IT company, which combines factors, trends, principles and steps, methods and techniques, as well as expected results ensuring comprehensive research and improving the quality of optimizing the entire set of business BPs, is built. There developed a set of models for managing and optimizing business processes to increase efficiency of strategic management of an IT services company through the implementation of the following tasks: building a descriptive model of BPs of an IT services company; elaborating a mechanism for managing BPs as an active, selforganized, viable system; assessing efficiency of BPs of an IT services company; developing a set of models for managing and optimizing BPs; optimizing the structure of BPs of an IT services company; elaborating a mechanism for evaluating effectiveness of management decisions in the system of business processes of an IT services company. There implemented the simulation models to optimize management of business process of IT companies using scenario modeling, on the basis of which the forecasting of managerial impacts on BP representatives by certain management strategies that allow choosing the most effective management decisions regarding specific BP activities is carried out. Article is written in Ukrainan
Samarets N. M., Kravets M. O. Economic and Mathematical Analysis of Oil Crop Production (p. 360  370)
The cultivation of oil crops and their processing are an important source of foreign currency incoming for the country and profits for agricultural producers. They are highly competitive, supply the food industry with valuable raw materials and nutritious feed for livestock. The carried out research aims at analyzing the current trends in the state of the market for oil crops in Ukraine and the contribution of the main categories of farms to it. The purpose of the article is to give a statistical assessment of the production of soybeans, sunflower and rape seeds by agricultural enterprises and households. In view of this, the corresponding economic and mathematical models are built, and the place of oil crops in the country’s export products as well as the latest technologies used in this economic sector are determined, the information of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the State Fiscal Service being used as empirical data. It is noted that the key function in the production of oil crops is performed by agricultural enterprises, which have more opportunities to increase their production volume. The ranking and clustering of the regions of Ukraine in terms of production of soybeans, sunflower and rape seeds demonstrates that 10 regions of Ukraine provide for the production of 61.9 % of oil crops; 8 regions — 30.7 %; 6 regions — 7.4 %. A significant role in the Ukrainian agroindustrial complex (AIC) and, in particular, in the formation of exports of oil crops is played by domestic agricultural holdings. The designed economic and mathematical models allowed to draw conclusions about the growth rate of the yield of oil crops and the coefficients of elasticity of the volumes of their production in terms of yield. The constructed trend lines and regression equations have fairly high predictive qualities, which makes it possible to take them into account when justifying alternatives of the future development of agricultural enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainan
Svetunkov S. G. Complex Variance in Modern Econometrics (p. 371  379)
One of the modern trends in economics is the use of elements of the theory of functions of complex variables. When constructing complexvalued econometric models, researchers come across the fact that in mathematical statistics the section associated with processing a complex random variable is based on the hypothesis on independence of the real and imaginary parts of complex variables. This hypothesis leads to the necessity of calculating the actual characteristics of complex random variables, including variance. As shown in the article, this assumption significantly limits the possibilities of modern econometrics. Therefore, the article substantiates the need to use complex variance in econometrics. The analysis of the properties of complex variance and the meaning of its real and imaginary parts is carried out. It is shown how, using a complex variance, to estimate the confidence limits for a complex random variable. Since the use of complex variance in econometrics and mathematical statistics is proposed for the first time ever, the article discusses the formation of complexvalued correlation and regression analysis, sections of which will be used in econometrics of complex variables. Article is written in English
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12019
Blahun I. I. Causal Relationship between the Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Ukraine (p. 199  207)
The aim of the article is to reveal the presence of the impact of changes in the exchange rate on the state of the Ukrainian stock market. As the main identifier of the status of the stock market, there used the index of PFTS as the stock exchange which most actively trades in stocks in Ukraine. The study of the causal relationship between the stock market and the exchange rate is based on the recorded daily data of the PFTS index and the USD / UAN exchange rate for the period 2010–2017. To characterize the time series of the values of the stock market index and exchange rate, their fractal dimensions are used. Assessing the stationarity of the time series of the stock market index and exchange rate with the help of the augmented Dicky–Fuller test and the Phillips–Perron test has allowed to determine that these series are nonstationary. The carried out stationary tests have confirmed the results of causality studies using Granger’s and Johansen’s methodology. It has been established that the inclusion of lagged variables of the stock market PFTS index in the model for describing changes in the exchange rate improves its properties. In the case of the value of the indexes and exchange rate, the tests indicate bilateral causality. In the work, the Sharpe model is used to break down the cumulative exchange rate risk into specific and systematic risks, which conditions the impact of volatility. As a result, it has been found that a one percent increase in the rate of return of the PFTS index causes an average depreciation of the hryvnia to the dollar by 0.03 percentage points. The results obtained are consistent with those calculated for other markets. Article is written in Ukrainan
Malуarets L. M., Grynko P. О. Analytical Support for Analysis of Efficiency of an Enterprise’s ExportImport Activity (p. 208  216)
Efficiency of the foreign economic activity of Ukraine depends on efficiency of exportimport activity of enterprises. Therefore, solving problems of managing this activity in an enterprise should have a scientific basis and involve using modern analytical support of management functions. The aim of the article is presenting the results of a study aimed at improving mathematical tools in particular and analytical support in general as well as an analysis of efficiency of industrial enterprises’ exportimport activity. The object of the research is the process of developing analytical support for the analysis. The main methods for developing the analytical support are an improved method for calculating the integral indicator of efficiency of an enterprise’s exportimport activity and the integral indicator of structural dynamic pattern of its efficiency. The article also substantiates the system of criteria for measuring efficiency of an enterprise’s exportimport activity. For assessing the dynamic pattern of structural shifts in efficiency of exportimport activity, it is recommended to analyze the time series of the criteria and justify the reference ratio of the orders of the rates of their changes, i.e., the structural dynamic reference. Comparing the two rank ordering – the actual and the reference one, we obtain consistency in the dynamic pattern of development of exportimport activity. The integral coefficient is calculated on the basis of the Spearman and Kendall rank correlation coefficients. The logic of the stages of the methodological approach to calculating the structural indicator of efficiency of an enterprise’s exportimport activity is given. The practical implementation of the proposals is demonstrated using as an example statistical data of OJSC “Turboatom”. The calculations were carried out in the Excel environment. The advantages of the proposals are the consideration in the process of analyzing this activity of both the level of its efficiency and structural dynamic pattern during the period under study. The implementation of the proposed analytical support will make it possible to develop more effective measures to eliminate the problems of managing efficiency of exportimport activity and comprehensively form strategies for developing this activity in enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainan
Tyzhnenko A. G., Ryeznik Y. V. Ordinary Least Squares: the Adequacy of Linear Regression Solutions under Multicollinearity and without it (p. 217  227)
The article deals with the problem of economic adequacy of solving a linear regression problem by the OLS method. The study uses the following definition of adequacy: a linear regression solution is considered adequate if it not only has correct signs but also correctly reflects the relationship between coefficients of regression in the population. If in this case the coefficient of determination is greater than 0.8, the solution is considered economically adequate. As an indicator of adequacy of a linear regression problem solution it is proposed to use a 10 % level of the coefficient of variability (CV) of the regression coefficients. It is shown that OLS solutions may be not adequate to the solution in the population, although they may be physically correct (with correct signs) and statistically significant. The mentioned result is obtained by using the artificial data population (ADP) algorithm. The ADP allows generating data of any size with known regression coefficients in the whole population, which can be calculated with the aid of the OLS solution for a very large sample. The ADP algorithm makes it possible to change the regular component of the influence of the regressors on the response. Besides, the random changes of regressors in the ADP are divided into two parts. The first part is coherent to the response changes, but the second part is completely random (incoherent). This one allows changing the nearcollinearity level of the data by changing the variance of the incoherent noise in regressors. Studies using ADP have shown that with a high probability the OLS solutions are physically incorrect if the sample sizes (n) are less than 23; physically correct but not adequate for 23 < n < 400; adequate for n > 400. Furthermore, it is noted that if the elimination of strongly correlated regressors is not economically justified but is rather a measure of lowering the value of the VIFfactor, the results may be far from the reality. In this regard, it is stated that the use of the MOLS eliminates the need to exclude strongly correlated regressors at all, since the accuracy of the MOLS solution increases with an increase in the VIF. Article is written in English
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №22019
Voronin A. V., Gunko O. V., Аfanasieva L. M. Problems of Stability of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models (p. 185  193)
This paper deals with the problems of stabilizing economic growth using traditional macroeconomic strategies. The goal taken implies a largescale use of the machinery of the qualitative theory of discrete economic dynamics. A set of economic and mathematical models that take into consideration the specifics of macroeconomic equilibrium in view of neoKeynesian economics is proposed. It is essential to analyze the residual effect caused by the “dynamic memory” of all previous values in relation to the present moment in time in the investment policy and the consumption structure. When building dynamic models of economic growth of Gross Domestic Product, functional equations of a specific type, such as Volterra difference equations, were obtained. Accordingly, for each of the above functional equations studied, there received a number of inequalities that determine the domains of parametric stability of the equilibrium. Structural constraints of the basic parameters of the multiplieraccelerator model, which can have a significant impact on the distribution of consumption and investment to ensure sustainable growth of national income, are formulated in an explicit form. There indicated conditions for constraining such parameters as the accelerator capacity and marginal propensity to save, which should be taken into account when developing economic and mathematical models for the purposes of forecasting and managing national macroeconomic policies. Graphic illustrations of the obtained solutions to the corresponding difference equations of the national income behavior are presented. Article is written in Russian
Sherstennykov Y. V. CoOptimization of Production Capacity and Advertising (p. 194  199)
The work deals with the development of one of the methods for simulating the logistics system (LS) of an enterprise. The aim of the article is using the approach developed by J. Forrester to build a simulation model, based on which it is possible to perform mathematical cooptimization of the production capacity and advertising of an enterprise which produces a single product. The paper formulates a system of equations describing the LS of the enterprise. The calculations of the time behavior of all rates of the logistics system (rate of production, rate of delivery), as well as the behavior of the inventory levels at the wholesale warehouse and retail are carried out. The optimization problem of determining the maximum economic efficiency is formulated and solved. In this case, production capacity and advertising costs are considered as variable parameters of the optimization problem. By numerical calculations, it is proved that there is a single point of maximum economic efficiency as a function of the planned capacity of the enterprise. Article is written in English
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №42019
Blahun I. S., Leshchuk H. V., Kyfor M. V. A Forecast Model for Assessing Tourist Flows with Regard to the Additive Seasonality Factor Using the Example of IvanoFrankivsk Region (p. 250  256)
The aim of the article is to study and analyze trends in the development of the tourism sector with the application of econometric modeling and forecasting methods, using the example of the IvanoFrankivsk region. The paper analyzes the current trends in tourist flows using the example of IvanoFrankivsk region in the following areas: total number of tourists served by tour operators and travel agents; number of domestic, outbound and inbound (foreign) tourists. Based on exponential models, which are relatively easy to implement, forecasts accounting for the choice of the final form of the models with the use of the criteria of the minimum mean square error or damped forecast are built. By means of a linear trend model with additive seasonality, additive seasonality indicators are calculated for the variable which reflects the number of tourists visiting IvanoFrankivsk region. Based on the Winters model, there performed a forecast of the number of tourists who rent rooms in tourist collective accommodations, which made it possible to determine actual retrospective values and forecast the number of tourists in 2020 in IvanoFrankivsk region. Article is written in Ukrainan
Koleshchuk O. Y. Innovative Development of MachineBuilding Enterprises Based on Cognitive Modeling: Strategic Management Scenarios (p. 257  263)
The aim of the article is determining the level of innovative development of machinebuilding enterprises based on cognitive modeling for strategic management scenarios. It is found that the formation of scenarios using cognitive technologies is an important method under uncertainty since it allows to determine the boundaries of possible strategic changes in innovative development of machinebuilding enterprises and effectively manage them. The stages of using the technology of cognitive modeling for the formation of strategic innovation management of machinebuilding enterprises and the approaches to developing scenarios for the formation of strategic innovation management of machinebuilding enterprises are considered. It is determined that cognitive maps are used in the process of analyzing and making effective decisions on the formation of strategic innovation management of machinebuilding enterprises by studying causal relationships between significant factors (notions, concepts). A general cognitive map of strategic innovation management of machinebuilding enterprises is proposed. At each stage of the formation of the model, decisions, the totality of which determines the flexibility, activity and adaptability of the constructed model, have to be made. Article is written in Ukrainan
Kotsyuba O. S. Development of a Fuzzy Set Apparatus for Risk Measurement: the Case of Simultaneous Fuzziness of the Criterion Indicator and its Standard (p. 264  271)
The article deals with the development of a methodological apparatus for quantifying the degree of economic risk in modeling uncertainty with the usу of fuzzy set theory. The study implements the task of further development of a fuzzy set method for risk measurement based on a probabilistic analogy for a case of simultaneous fuzziness of estimates of the criterion economic indicator (criterion) and its standard, which allow for a presentation form that is interval in terms of levels of membership ( levels). As part of this, an appropriate calculation model is formulated. Furthermore, the work pays attention to the situation when both the criterion and its standard are modeled by fuzzy values with a high degree of arbitrariness of their structure, which does not allow an interval, in terms of levels of membership, way of representing them. Within the methodological approach, based on the probabilistic analogy, a possible computational design is proposed for this purpose. Along with the above mentioned, the study distinguishes as practically significant a combined situation, when the structure for fuzzy assessment of the criterion economic indicator is characterized with a high degree of randomness, while the assessment of its standard assumes a presentation form that is interval in terms of membership level. Moreover, possible calculation model is formulated for the above statement of the problem under study. As a promising area for further scientific research on the problem field considered in the article, there identified studying and developing tools to support decisionmaking in management of economic systems that allow handling simultaneously different types of uncertainty. Article is written in Ukrainan
Nykyforchyn I. V. The PrincipalAgent Model with an Informative Signal to the Advantage of the Agent (p. 272  276)
This article deals with the problem of negative impact of information asymmetry on the market and methods for mitigating it. This problem is solved by using the methods of the economic theory of contracts. In the work, methods for reducing the information gap with the help of developing optimal contracts are considered. In particular, the application of market signaling, studied by M. Spence, which is used by a more effective agent to inform the principal about his / her “good” type, is examined. Naturally, the signal reduces the asymmetry of information, which increases the advantage of the principal, but reduces it for less efficient customers. The requirements for market signaling models are analyzed, their basic types are classified, and the main equilibrium types are considered. Based on the fact that signaling, obviously, positively solves the problem of adverse selection but increases the cost of the contract due to the costs of signaling, the basic conditions for selfselection of participants in the contract process are given. The article develops a model of information signal for the principal and the agent, which can belong to one of the two types – “good” (more effective) and “bad” (less effective). While with the classical model the agent sends a market signal in order to tell the principal his / her type, we propose a model of information signal sent by the environment and received by the agent (but not by the principal, as usual). Unlike a binary signal, in this model the signal determines the probability of the agent’s belonging to each type. The article describes the conditions of selfselection of agents at a known signal distribution function. Depending on these conditions, the agent chooses one of the two proposed contracts or refuses the contract at all. There developed a method for constructing a pair of contracts that is optimal from the point of view of the principal if he knows the distribution of the informative signal and the utility function of the agent is concave upward. Article is written in Ukrainan
Potrashkova L. V. A Simulation Model of Social Responsibility of an Enterprise with the Implementation of Fuzzy Inference to Estimate the Level of Ecological Safety (p. 277  285)
Decisionmaking on corporate social responsibility (CSR) should be based on assessment of consequences of the enterprise’s activities both for the enterprise itself and its stakeholders. To assess these consequences, mathematical models of social responsibility of an enterprise taking into account the specifics of the enterprise’s activities should be developed. The aim of the study is to formulate conceptual requirements for displaying the characteristics of CSR in microeconomic simulation models as well as to build on this basis a simulation model of social responsibility of a printing plant (printing house). To achieve this goal, the study forms the requirements for building simulation models of social responsibility of an enterprise, in particular, those to the composition of their factors and responses. It is proved that many factors in these models should contain indicators of cost, quality, ecological and resource safety, as well as indicators of suitability of resources to meet the needs of persons with disabilities. The set of responses in the models should contain indicators reflecting satisfaction of various needs of stakeholder (concerning financial issues; quality of life; development) as well as indicators of reproduction of the enterprise’s potential. The relationship among these resource indicators and the enterprise’s performance is revealed. A typical diagram of causeeffect relationship among enterprise’s activities with regard to social responsibility is formed. To describe the relationship among the characteristics of resources and the level of social responsibility of the enterprise, it is proposed to use fuzzy logic tools. Based on the presented conceptual requirements, using Matlab Simulink tools, a simulation model of social responsibility of the printing house is built, which allows assessing consequences of the enterprise’s activities with regard to social responsibility both for the enterprise itself and its stakeholders. In the developed model, indicators of cost, quality, ecological and resource safety that correspond to the specialization of the enterprise are used. The estimation of ecological safety of the printing house is obtained by implementing the fuzzy inference process in the model. Article is written in Ukrainan
Rayevnyeva O. V., Touzani Tarik A Model for Predicting Enterprise Behavior in a NonStationary Environment (p. 286  292)
The aim of the article is to build a model for predicting behavior of an enterprise under conditions of its interaction with the external environment, involving the formation and support of the optimal trajectory of its behavior. Based on the analysis of research works, the category “enterprise behavior” is considered, and its relationship with the enterprise’s development is determined. There formed rules that constitute its methodological basis for constructing a prognostic model and allow taking into account various aspects of enterprise behavior in the system “enterprise – industry – national economy”. As a result of the research, a system of prediction models, containing the CobbDouglas production function, lag, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models is constructed. As part of this model, there investigated the following blocks: production; scientific and technological progress and innovation and marketing component; financial and labor components; type / style of the company in a competitive environment; external interaction. The proposed model for predicting the behavior of an enterprise in an unsteady environment, which has the form of a system of functional dependencies, allows carrying out comprehensive analysis of the enterprise’s internal and external capabilities. The prospect of further research in this area is the development of target guidelines for managing the behavior of an enterprise in a fluctuating market environment, with consideration for its real and potential resources and development opportunities of the industry and the national economy. Article is written in Ukrainan
Shapran E. M., Sergienko O. A., Sosnov I. I. Multilevel Structural Models of Scenarios for Development of Entities in the Agricultural Sector of the International Trade Market under Risk (p. 293  305)
The study deals with solving a set of tasks aimed at improving management of financial and credit mechanisms, and lending processes for business entities in the agricultural sector by creating effective tools to support assessment, analysis, planning and managerial decision making with the use of modern economic and mathematical methods. The proposed multilevel structural models of scenarios for development of entities in the agricultural sector of the international trade market under risk are presented as directions for enhancing financial security to improve lending to business entities in the agricultural sector. For the development and implementation of scenarios for managing creditworthiness of business entities under internal and external risks, the paper presents an algorithm for making managerial decisions to ensure efficiency and effectiveness and achieve a synergistic effect at all levels of management. The developed tools for forecasting entities in the agrarian market will help to reveal the consequences of the influence of factors forming organizational and managerial potential using the method of “future scenarios” in the form of a cube of situations. Structural threelevel models of scenarios for the development of credit activities of business entities under risk in the analytical and graphical aspects are proposed. The elaborated models take into account the totality of interconnected processes to increase the level of creditworthiness in the area of improving the credit policy. A set of management measures depending on the variant of the credit management strategy is given as a systematized list of standard financial decisions. Methodological developments and recommendations for modeling scenarios for development of entities in the agricultural sector of the international trade market under risks can be considered as directions for increasing the level of financial security of agricultural enterprises. Article is written in Ukrainan
Sherstennykov Y. V. The Methodology for Modeling Logistics Systems: Implementation Principles and Examples (p. 306  314)
The article deals with the development of a methodology for constructing a model of an enterprise’s logistics system engaged in production and marketing activities. The introduction notes the importance of general theoretical research methods. A universal method for constructing a logistics system is developed, starting with the construction and analysis of the simplest reservoir systems (J. Forrester’s approach). The construction of the logistics system is carried out in stages, as a result of the consistent refinement of the reservoir model. At the first stages, the model is modified with consideration for the most important functions of any logistics system. At each stage of the construction, calculations of the main characteristics of the logistics system are made. Based on the analysis of the calculations results, the conclusions on the ways for further refinement of the model are drawn. The model is used to solve optimization problems in order to determine the optimal value of the parameters of the constructed logistics systems. The optimization problems solved in the article by their formulation are similar to Pontryagin’s maximum principle used in optimal control theory. To solve them, the method for computation of optimization problems of this class is applied. The developed methodology is universal and applicable for any theoretical study of the logistics system. Article is written in English
THE PROBLEMS OF ECONOMY №12020
Manoilenko O. V., Sergienko O. A., Gaponenko O. Y. Modeling the Innovative Activity of Hierarchical Systems: Assessing Diffusion of Innovations and Economic Effect of the Existing Potential and Results (p. 312  324)
In the article, models for assessing the innovative potential and results of innovative activity of enterprises in Kharkiv region are built, which makes it possible to classify enterprises according to the degree of development of their innovative potential and results of its use. Innovative potential is considered as an integral characteristic of innovative resource support for a production system, which is the sum of human, industrial, technological, financial, structural, scientific and technical, resources that facilitate innovative activity. A scale is developed for assessing innovation activity and susceptibility of industrial enterprises to innovation (innovatively active enterprises (IAE); susceptible to innovation enterprises (SIE); insusceptible to innovation enterprises (IIE). The presented allows for building a model of innovative activity of enterprises taking into account interaction of enterprises and evaluating the impact of government stimulation of innovation on increase in the number of innovatively active enterprises. Using the panel data analysis, a model of financial effect of the number of innovatively active enterprises is built. The developed model is used to predict the results of stimulating innovation activity in the region and to form scenarios for stimulating innovation in regions. To assess the impact of state stimulation of innovation activity on growth in the number of innovatively active enterprises and to evaluate income from the implementation of innovative activity, a model of innovative activity of enterprises that takes into account the probabilistic nature of the diffusion of innovation as a result of interaction of enterprises is constructed. It is found that as a result of the impact of innovatively active production enterprises and SIEs on an IIE, the probability of diffusion is 0.5; i.e., in 50% of cases, the production system passes into the class of production systems that are susceptible to innovation. Article is written in Ukrainan
Pilko A. D., Lesiv I. B. Modeling the Process of Assessing and Analyzing Regional Export Potential (p. 325  331)
The publication presents the results of an analysis of existing approaches to managing international trade at the regional level as well as to assessing, analyzing, forecasting and optimizing regional export indicators. The study of existing approaches to quantitative assessment of export potential both in Ukraine and in other countries with a small open economy revealed limited possibilities for an effective use of the existing techniques at the level of Ukrainian regions and their territorial units. The analysis of export indicators and export efficiency of regions of Western Ukraine for the period 2008–2018 allowed for identifying the main patterns in the behavior of relevant indicators for the studied regions. The scientific novelty of the results obtained is the improvement and development of existing approaches to assessing and analyzing international trade of the region. The present paper proposes and implements an approach to assessing effectiveness of export activity using the existing statistical base and an approach to assessing potential of a region’s international trade with the application of the weighted Euclidean distance. The prospective development of the chosen research area with the employment of appropriate economic and mathematical tools will allow a qualitatively new approach to solving the problem of increasing efficiency of realization of a region’s international trade potential. Article is written in Ukrainan
Chernova N. L., Poliakova O. Y. Determining an Optimal Structure of a Portfolio Containing Assets of Mature and Emerging Markets (p. 332  339)
In the modern world, derivatives on leading stock indices are very often the focus of attention of portfolio investors. Inclusion of such tools in a portfolio actually allows investing immediately in the economy of a particular country or its individual sector. The aim of the work is the formation of an optimal investment portfolio containing derivatives on stock indices of countries with mature and emerging stock markets. To achieve this goal, the study solves the following tasks: two optimal portfolios — the portfolio containing indices of developed countries and the portfolio containing indices of emerging countries — are formed; the mixed portfolio containing indices of both sectors is formed; a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of the resulting portfolios is carried out. To obtain an optimal portfolio structure, the Markowitz model is used. The results of applying this model allow to draw the following conclusions regarding the investment attractiveness of the stock market of mature and emerging economies. In terms of portfolio risk level, it is possible to obtain a couple of portfolios, one of which would contain only assets of mature markets, and the other — only assets of emerging ones. However, in this case, the level of profitability will be significantly lower in the portfolio consisting of assets of the mature sector. The mixed portfolio provides a much wider range of alternative investment options based on the efficient frontier, both in terms of the risk and profitability criterion. Article is written in Ukrainan
