Threats to the Development of Critical Infrastructure: Essence and Classification
Khaustova V. Y., Trushkina N. V.

Khaustova, Viktoriia Ye., and Trushkina, Nataliia V. (2025) “Threats to the Development of Critical Infrastructure: Essence and Classification.” The Problems of Economy 3:89–104.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2025-3-89-104

Section: Economics and national economy management

UDC 334:338.1:338.2:355/359

Abstract:
The article presents a comprehensive scientific study of the essence and classification of threats to the development of critical infrastructure in the context of the transformation of the security environment, driven by hybrid warfare, digitalization, and global instability. It is substantiated that critical infrastructure is a multi-level socioeconomic and technical system on which the State’s viability, sustainable economic development, and national security depend. The aim of the article is to theoretically unveil the nature and structure of threats to the development of critical infrastructure, to systematize them, and to create a scientifically grounded classification adapted to modern security challenges and European resilience standards. The research methodology is based on a combination of systems analysis, bibliometric and content analysis, classification and typology methods, expert evaluation, comparative analysis, and structural-logical generalization. This combination allowed for a deeper identification of the interconnections between threat types, factors of their escalation, and the mechanisms influencing the resilience and controllability of infrastructure systems. The research results reflect the evolution of scientific approaches to interpreting the concept of «critical infrastructure development threats» – from risk-oriented models to integrated all-hazards resilience conceptions. The definition of this concept has been refined as the set of actual and potential factors of natural, technological, socioeconomic, military, or cyber origin, which, through system vulnerabilities, can disrupt its continuity, integrity, and functional controllability. An expanded classification of threats has been proposed, covering 14 types – from military, terrorist, and cyber threats to organizational, personnel, economic, and environmental ones. The interdependence of the physical, digital, and cognitive dimensions of threats and their cascading nature has been revealed. The conclusions confirm that modern management of critical infrastructure should be based on the principles of proactive resilience, integrated risk management, and cross-sectoral coordination. Among the key priorities of State security policy are the development of a National Strategy for Critical Infrastructure Development, aligned with the requirements of EU Directives 2022/2557 (Critical Entities Resilience) and NIS2, the creation of a national threat taxonomy, as well as the implementation of resilience audit standards and a system for monitoring resilience indicators. The practical significance of these results lies in the possibility of using the proposed theoretical and methodological provisions to improve legal and regulatory frameworks, strategic planning, and risk assessment, enhance cyber, energy, and organizational resilience, and establish the scientific foundations of Ukraine’s National Critical Infrastructure Resilience Strategy in the post-war period.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, critical infrastructure facilities, development, threats, identification, classification, systematization, regulatory framework, risk management, national security, cyber threats, State security policy, protection, endurance, resi

Fig.: 1. Tabl.: 6. Bibl.: 41.

Khaustova Viktoriia Ye. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Director, Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkіv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: v.khaust@gmail.com
Trushkina Nataliia V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Senior Research Fellow, Sector of Industrial Policy and Innovative Development of the Department of Industrial Policy and Energy Security, Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkіv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: trushkina@nas.gov.ua

List of references in article

Andriienko, D., Horiunov, D., Hrudova, V., et al. (2025). Zvit pro priami zbytku infrastruktury vid ruinuvan vnaslidok viiskovoi agresii rosii proty Ukrainy stanom na lystopad 2024 roku [Report on direct infrastructure losses from destruction due to Russian military aggression against Ukraine as of November 2024]. Kyiv: Kyiv School of Economics. https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/KSE_Damages_Report-November-2024-UA.pdf
Bobro, D. H. (2015). Vyznachennia kryteriiv otsinky ta zahrozy krytychnii infrastrukturi [Definition of assessment criteria and threats to critical infrastructure]. Stratehichni Priorytety. Ser. Ekonomika, 4(37), 83-93.
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2021, August 4). Stratehiia enerhetychnoi bezpeky [Energy Security Strategy] (Order No. 907-r). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/ laws/show/907-2021-%D1%80#Text
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2025, April 1). Pro zatverdzhennia vymoh shchodo upravlinnia ryzykamy bezpeky na obiektakh krytychnoi infrastruktury I katehorii krytychnosti [On approval of requirements for security risk management at critical infrastructure facilities of criticality category I] (Resolution No. 367). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/ show/367-2025-%D0%BF#Text
Chekhovska, M. M., & Lisovska, O. L. (2025). Zahrozy krytychnii infrastrukturi Ukrainy v suchasnykh umovakh [Threats to critical infrastructure of Ukraine in modern conditions]. Efektyvna Ekonomika, 2. https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105.2025.2.10
Chen, Z., Xu, G., Mahalingam, V., et al. (2016). A cloud computing based network monitoring and threat detection system for critical infrastructures. Big Data Research, 3, 10–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bdr.2015.11.002
Djenna, A., Harous, S., & Saidouni, D. E. (2021). Internet of things meet internet of threats: New concern cyber security issues of critical cyber infrastructure. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 11(10), Article 4580. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11104580
Geppert, K., & Konieczny, J. (2023). Analysis of potential threats to the critical infrastructure of the 31st Tactical Air Base in the context of the security of the Poznan Agglomeration. Przeglad Strategiczny – National Security, 16, 219–235. https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2023.1.16
Ghafir, I., Saleem, J., Hammoudeh, M., et al. (2018). Security threats to critical infrastructure: The human factor. Journal of Supercomputing, 74(10), 4986–5002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11227-018-2337-2
Herasymenko, O. M. (2024). Zahrozy obiektam krytychnoi infrastruktury Ukrainy v umovakh voiennoho stanu [Threats to critical infrastructure facilities of Ukraine under martial law]. Naukovyi Visnyk Uzhhorodskoho Natsionalnoho Universytetu. Seriia : Pravo, 84(3), 257–262. https://doi.org/10.24144/2307-3322.2024.84.3.39
Ivaniuta, S. P. (2017). Zahrozy krytychnii infrastrukturi ta yikh vplyv na stan natsionalnoi bezpeky (monitorynh realizatsii Stratehii natsionalnoi bezpeky) [Threats to critical infrastructure and their impact on national security (monitoring the implementation of the National Security Strategy)]. Kyiv: NISD. https://www.niss.gov.ua/doslidzhennya/nacionalna-bezpeka/zagrozi-kritichniy-infrastrukturi-ta-ikh-vpliv-na-stan-nacionalnoi
Ivaniuta, S. P., Panov, Ye. M., Ivanenko, O. I., & Hapon, S. V. (2024). Otsinka ryzykiv krytychnii infrastrukturi Ukrainy v umovakh rosiiskoi viiskovoi ahresii [Risk assessment for Ukraine's critical infrastructure in the context of Russian military aggression]. Visnyk Natsionalnoho Tekhnichnoho Universytetu Ukrainy «Kyivskyi Politekhnichnyi Instytut imeni Ihoria Sikorskoho». Seriia : Khimichna Inzheneriia, Ekolohiia ta Resursozberezhennia, 2(23), 47-61. https://doi.org/10.20535/2617-9741.2.2024.307360
Jovanovic, A., Schernberg, H., Brem, S., Chakravarty, S., & Jelic, M. (2023). Indicator-based assessment of extreme threats (XTs) and their impacts on the resilience of geographical areas and critical infrastructures. Environment Systems and Decisions, 43(4), 599–624. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-023-09950-x
Khaustova, V., & Ilyash, O. (2024). Military and economic potential of the countries of the world: Assessment and analysis of the impact on international security. In K. Raczkowski & P. Komorowski (Eds.), International economic policy for the polycrisis. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003487913-9
Khaustova, V., Trushkina, N., & Zinchenko, V. (2023). Kliuchovi vyklyky vidnovlennia krytychnoi infrastruktury Ukrainy v umovakh povoiennoi rozbudovy ekonomiky [Key challenges of restoring Ukraine's critical infrastructure in the context of post-war economic development]. In V. Ye. Khaustova (Ed.), Povoienne vidnovlennia ekonomiky Ukrainy: problemy ta napriamky vyrishennia [Post-war reconstruction of Ukraine's economy: Problems and directions of solution] (pp. 7–33). Kharkiv: FOP Liburkina L. M. https://doi.org/10.32983/978-617-7801-41-1
Khaustova, V. Ye. (2025). Transformatsiia modeli ekonomiky Ukrainy u povoiennyi period [Transformation of the economic model of Ukraine in the post-war period]. Kharkiv: Liburkina L. M. https://doi.org/10.32983/978-617-7801-52-7
Khaustova, V. Ye., & Reshetniak, O. I. (2023). Rezylientnist ekonomiky: sutnist i vyklyky dlia Ukrainy [Resilience of the economy: Essence and challenges for Ukraine]. Biznes Inform, 7, 30–41. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2023-7-30-41
Khaustova, V. Ye., & Trushkina, N. V. (2024). Ryzyky ta zahrozy natsionalnii bezpetsi: sutnist i klasyfikatsiia [Risks and threats to national security: Essence and classification]. Biznes Inform, 10, 6–22. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2024-10-6-22
Kure, H. I., & Islam, S. (2019). Cyber threat intelligence for improving cybersecurity and risk management in critical infrastructure. Journal of Universal Computer Science, 25(11), 1478–1502.
Kwilinski, A., & Trushkina, N. (2024). Impact of cyber risks and threats on the critical infrastructure development: Visualization of scientific research. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Applied Innovation in IT (ICAIIT), 12(2), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.25673/118123
Kyiv School of Economics. (2024). Zvit pro priami zbytku infrastruktury vid ruinuvan vnaslidok viiskovoi agresii Rosii proty Ukrainy stanom na pochatok 2024 roku [Report on direct infrastructure losses from destruction due to the Russian military aggression against Ukraine as of the beginning of 2024]. Kyiv. https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/01.01.24_Damages_Report.pdf
Kyzym, M. O., Khaustova, V. Ye., & Trushkina, N. V. (2022). Sutnist poniattia «krytychna infrastruktura» z pozytsii natsionalnoi bezpeky Ukrainy [The essence of the concept of "critical infrastructure" from the standpoint of national security of Ukraine]. Biznes Inform, 12, 58–78. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-12-58-78
Luiijf, H. A. M., & Nieuwenhuijs, A. H. (2008). Extensible threat taxonomy for critical infrastructures. International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 4(4), 409–417. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCIS.2008.020159
Mahomedov, A. O. (2024). Ryzyky ta zahrozy dlia obiektiv krytychnoi infrastruktury ta shliakhy yikh podolannia [Risks and threats to critical infrastructure facilities and ways to overcome them]. Investytsii: Praktyka ta Dosvid, 15, 216–222. https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6814.2024.15.216
Mehdiyev, S. A., & Hashimov, M. A. (2024). Analysis of threats and cybersecurity in the oil and gas sector within the context of critical infrastructure. International Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science, 16(1), 43–53. https://doi.org/10.5815/ijitcs.2024.01.05
Melnyk, D. S. (2024). Pobudova modeli zahroz natsionalnii krytychnii infrastrukturi Ukrainy yak osnova zabezpechennia yii bezpeky ta stiikosti [Building a model of threats to the national critical infrastructure of Ukraine as a basis for ensuring its safety and sustainability]. Visnyk Kharkivskoho Natsionalnoho Universytetu Vnutrishnikh Sprav, 1(104), 237–250. https://doi.org/10.32631/v.2024.1.20
Murasov, R. K., & Melnyk, Ya. V. (2023). Rezultaty otsiniuvannia zahroz krytychnii infrastrukturi metodom ekspertnoho otsiniuvannia [Results of critical infrastructure threat assessment by expert evaluation method]. Suchasni informatsiini tekhnolohii u sferi bezpeky ta oborony, 3(48), 83–88. https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2023-48-3-83-88
Nevolnichenko, A. I., Chumachenko, S. M., Mykhailova, A. V., Pyrikov, O. V., & Murasov, R. K. (2022). Modeliuvannia zahroz vynyknennia nadzvychainykh sytuatsii na obiektakh krytychnoi infrastruktury z vykorystanniam metodu systemnoi dynamiky [Modeling threats of emergencies at critical infrastructure facilities using the system dynamics method]. Tavriiskyi Naukovyi Visnyk. Seriia : Tekhnichni Nauky, 3, 89–97. https://doi.org/10.32851/tnv-tech.2022.3.10
Pomaza-Ponomarenko, A. L. (2025). Zbytky, naneseni boiovymy diiamy obiektam krytychnoi infrastruktury v Ukraini: mekhanizmy otsiniuvannia ta vidnovlennia [Damage caused by hostilities to critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine: Assessment and restoration mechanisms]. Uspikhy i Dosiahnennia u Nauci, 1(11), 601–611. https://doi.org/10.52058/3041-1254-2025-1(11)-601-611
President of Ukraine. (2020, September 14). Stratehiia natsionalnoi bezpeky Ukrainy [National Security Strategy of Ukraine] (Decree No. 392/2020). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/392/2020#Text
President of Ukraine. (2021, August 11). Stratehiia ekonomichnoi bezpeky Ukrainy [Strategy of Economic Security of Ukraine] (Decree No. 347/2021). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/347/2021#Text
President of Ukraine. (2021, September 27). Kontseptsiia zabezpechennia natsionalnoi systemy stiikosti [Concept of ensuring the national resilience system] (Decree No. 479/2021). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/479/2021#n11
Synchron. (2025). Kiberataky na biznes Ukrainy 2025: Novi Vektory Zahroz ta Zakhyst [Cyberattacks on Ukrainian business 2025: New threat vectors and protection]. https://synchron.ua/cyberattacks-on-ukrainian-business-2025-uk/#:~:text
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. (2021, November 16). Pro krytychnu infrastrukturu [About critical infrastructure] (Law No. 1882-IX). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1882-20#Text
Wells, E. M., Boden, M., Tseytlin, I., & Linkov, I. (2022). Modeling critical infrastructure resilience under compounding threats: A systematic literature review. Progress in Disaster Science, 15, Article 100244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100244
World Bank. (2024). Ukraine. Rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA3). February 2022 – December 2023. Washington, DC. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099021324115085807/pdf/P1801741bea12c012189ca16d95d8c2556a.pdf
World Bank. (2025). Ukraine. Rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA4). February 2022 – December 2024. Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/96bd9c94-c327-49b4-8aff-fe125686f04e/content
World Bank Group. (2024, February 15). Updated Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment released: Press Release No 2024/ESA/063. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/02/15/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released
World Bank Group. (2025, February 25). Updated Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment released: Press Release No 2025/ECA/079. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/25/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released
Yermenchuk, O. (2018). Otsinka zahroz krytychnii infrastrukturi yak vazhlyva skladova chastyna diialnosti iz zakhystu derzhavnoi bezpeky [Assessment of threats to critical infrastructure as an important component of state security]. Jurnalul Juridic National: Teorie si Practica – Natsionalnyi Yurydychnyi Zhurnal: Teoriia i Praktyka, 5(50), 50–54.
Yermenchuk, O. V. (2023). Naukovi ta metodychni zasady formuvannia systemy zakhystu krytychnoi infrastruktury v Ukraini [Scientific and methodological principles of forming a system for protecting critical infrastructure in Ukraine]. Khmelnytskyi: KhUUP imeni Leonida Yuzkova.