Ukraine’s Foreign Trade Security in the Conditions of a Prolonged War: Factors, Threats, Impact on Economic Growth
Babets I. G.

Babets, Iryna G. (2026) “Ukraine’s Foreign Trade Security in the Conditions of a Prolonged War: Factors, Threats, Impact on Economic Growth.” The Problems of Economy 1:43–51.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2026-1-43-51

Section: Economics and national economy management

UDC 339.5:330.3

Abstract:
The article analyzes the dynamics of indicators of Ukraine’s foreign trade security in the context of the prolonged war. An integral indicator of Ukraine’s foreign trade security for 2014–2024 was calculated, and periods of increase and decrease in the level of security were identified. A conclusion was made about the increase in the level of foreign trade security after crisis periods, which indicates the ability of foreign trade entities to adapt to sharp changes in the internal and external environment. Based on the results of calculating the sensitivity coefficients of the integral indicator to changes in the indicators, the most significant factors and threats to Ukraine’s foreign trade security were determined, which depend on the deterioration of the compliance with security criteria of such indicators as the terms of trade price index, economic openness, the share of the leading commodity in the total import volume of goods, and the share of the leading partner country in the total import volume of goods. A regression analysis was conducted on the impact of foreign trade security indicators on Ukraine’s economic growth in 2014–2024. It was proved that changes in most of Ukraine’s foreign trade security indicators significantly affected GDP at current prices and GDP per capita. Based on the results of the regression analysis, a conclusion was made about the inverse relationship between Ukraine’s GDP and GDP per capita and the level of economic openness. The decline in the level of economic openness that occurred in 2014–2024 had a positive impact on Ukraine’s economic growth. The results of the regression analysis made it possible to identify a direct relationship between GDP and GDP per capita and the increase in the share of raw materials and low-tech goods in the total volume of goods exports, indicating a positive impact of these indicators on Ukraine’s economic growth despite threats to foreign trade security caused by an inefficient export structure. The increase in the share of imports in the country’s domestic consumption and the terms of trade price index had a negative impact on Ukraine’s economic growth during the study period.

Keywords: foreign trade, foreign trade security, integral indicator, threats, economic growth, regression analysis.

Fig.: 1. Tabl.: 4. Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 13.

Babets Iryna G. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of International Economic Relations, Central Ukrainian National Technical University (8 Universytetskyi Ave., Kropivnitskyi, 25006, Ukraine)
Email: irina.babets@ukr.net

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