Prospects of Ukraine's Participation in the World Market of Tourist Services
Lezhepokova V. H., Posishchuk M. Y.

Lezhepokova, Viktoriia H., and Posishchuk, Margarita Yu. (2026) “Prospects of Ukraine's Participation in the World Market of Tourist Services.” The Problems of Economy 2:109–116.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2026-2-109-116

Section: World economy and international relations

UDC 339.56:338.48(477)

Abstract:
The article is devoted to examining global and national trends in international trade in tourism services, identifying contemporary drivers of the industry's development, and establishing strategic priorities and predictive recovery scenarios for Ukraine’s tourism sector for the 2026–2030 period. A retrospective analysis of global tourism services exports was conducted, allowing for the identification of the key phases of its dynamics: stable pre-pandemic growth, the deep structural shock of 2020–2021, and the subsequent recovery period. Fluctuations in international tourist arrivals across the industry-leading countries during the pandemic crisis and the post-crisis regeneration of the global market were thoroughly analyzed. The study of Ukraine’s inbound tourism flow dynamics revealed a specific qualitative restructuring of the market during the full-scale war: a sharp contraction in physical arrival volumes coupled with a substantial increase in average expenditure per visitor, which is attributed to a profound shift in the arrival stream structure. The role of digitalization is defined as a leading global driver for modernization and enhancing the competitiveness of international tourism. Ukraine's potential to reintegrate into the global tourism services market is substantiated based on its competitive advantages, notably its high digital readiness and diversified resource base. Key strategic avenues for the post-war revival of Ukraine's tourism sector are outlined, including infrastructural modernization, the development of specialized types of tourism and ecological routes, national branding, and the institutional harmonization of standards with EU and UN Tourism requirements. Utilizing predictive modeling methods, three scenarios (optimistic, baseline, and moderate) for the recovery of inbound tourism in Ukraine for the period up to 2030 are justified. It is demonstrated that under the optimistic model and the cessation of active hostilities, the tourist flow volume has the potential to reach 12 million arrivals, ensuring a sustainable contribution to GDP and the country's total services exports.

Keywords: tourist services; international trade; leading countries of the tourist market; tourist flows, inbound tourism.

Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 3. Bibl.: 20.

Lezhepokova Viktoriia H. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of World Economy, State University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: v.lezhepokova@knute.edu.ua
Posishchuk Margarita Yu. – Student, State University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: m.posishchuk_fmtp_15_24_b_d@knute.edu.ua

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